ONEOK 2026 Financial Outlook Boosts Revenue and Demand Forecasts

ONEOK (OKE): Updated 2026 Financial Guidance and Market Outlook

1) Updated 2026 financial guidance (raised)

ONEOK said it is increasing its 2026 financial guidance, citing strong first-quarter performance across its integrated systems and higher expectations for the remainder of the year. ¹

Net income (2026)

• Updated guidance: midpoint of approximately $3.5 billion for 2026 net income. ¹

Diluted EPS (2026)

• Updated guidance: midpoint of $5.53 for diluted earnings per share. ¹

Adjusted EBITDA (2026)

• Updated guidance: midpoint of $8.25 billion for adjusted EBITDA. ¹

Capital expenditures (2026)

• Capex guidance: unchanged at $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion for total 2026 capital expenditure. ¹

2) When the improvement should show up in results

Management linked the guidance raise to a more constructive market environment that developed late in the first quarter and said that as the company moves into the back half of 2026, higher volumes, completed projects, and market tailwinds should show up more clearly in results for the balance of 2026 and into 2027. ¹

ONEOK also noted a seasonal/typical pattern:

• First-quarter 2026 expected as the lowest EBITDA quarter of the year, consistent with its annual cadence and seasonal dynamics. ¹

3) Guidance context: what changed in the near-term outlook

Management characterized the guidance increase as “reflecting strong performance and building momentum,” including its view of durable long-term demand for energy infrastructure. ² It also tied the outlook to improving markets late in the quarter. ¹

Additionally, on the question of “how much” of the early improvement is already realized, management clarified that:

• Winter storm impacts were already reflected in original 2026 guidance, implying no incremental effect on the guidance raise from those impacts. ³
• The guidance increase was described as a blend of stronger volume expectations driven by higher commodity prices, continued expected differential opportunities, and expected benefit from higher commodity prices (even though the company is hedged). ³
• Management referenced that hedging is typically about 75% going into a year, while any volumes received going forward would enjoy the full benefit of higher commodity prices. ³

4) 2026 market outlook: demand and structural tailwinds

ONEOK’s market outlook for 2026 is framed around durable infrastructure demand, not short-term cycles.

Key demand drivers discussed include:

U.S. natural gas and LNG-linked growth

• Management cited U.S. natural gas demand growth tied to power generation (including emerging data center demand), industrial activity, and LNG exports. ²
• It also stated that LNG export capacity is protected to more than double over the next decade, reinforcing the durable global call for U.S. natural gas infrastructure. ²
• The company further emphasized the growth in LNG capacity, stating U.S. LNG going from 18 Bcf to 30 Bcf by 2030, and argued that recoverable NGLs (65%+ of U.S. gas contains recoverable NGLs) should support NGL growth in the U.S. ⁴

End-market resilience and platform positioning

• ONEOK described midstream as connecting supply and demand “across cycles, not around them,” supported by its integrated platform (natural gas liquids, natural gas, crude oil, refined products) and fee-based model. ²
• It stated its systems are positioned around resilient basins and durable demand centers, including power generation, industrial demand, and export markets. ²
• For the remainder of 2026, management reiterated priorities including operating safely/reliably and executing its capital growth program with balance sheet discipline and volume growth across its systems. ²

5) Segment-and-market operating themes supporting the outlook

Beyond macro demand, management pointed to operational and commercial drivers consistent with stronger 2026 volumes:

Gathering & Processing volume momentum

• Producer activity is described as supporting 2026 volume outlook, with confidence driven by direct visibility into producer plans rather than assuming higher commodity prices. ⁵
• Management said producer behavior remains disciplined and completion activity is accelerating, which supports confidence in the 2026 volume outlook. ⁵

Natural gas liquids (NGL) demand strength

• NGL demand was described as structurally strong globally, with geopolitics reinforcing U.S. supply attractiveness and increasing requests for capacity on announced LPG export docks. ⁶

Refined products demand/seasonality

• Refined products volumes were supported by strong gasoline and diesel demand, and management expected continued demand into seasonal periods (diesel moving into spring agricultural season; gasoline into summer travel season). ⁷
• Management also highlighted that jet fuel supply remains constrained for an extended period, which could contribute to incremental gasoline demand. ⁷

Natural gas pipeline commercial demand and LNG-related demand

• ONEOK said firm transportation demand remains strong with high contracted capacity and strong utilization. ⁸
• It also cited significant interest in added “center-related opportunities” in Oklahoma and Texas and that it is in advanced discussions with several counterparties. ⁸
• LNG-related demand was described as strong near term and long term, supporting the durability of natural gas pipeline demand. ⁸

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Bottom line

ONEOK’s updated 2026 guidance is higher, with management now targeting:

• Net income midpoint ~ $3.5B ¹
• Diluted EPS midpoint $5.53 ¹
• Adjusted EBITDA midpoint $8.25B ¹ while keeping 2026 capex unchanged at $2.7B to $3.2B. ¹

The company’s market outlook for 2026 is constructive, grounded in durable U.S. energy infrastructure demand, supported by growing U.S. natural gas demand (power, industrial, LNG), LNG export capacity growth, and strong longer-term demand fundamentals that should become more visible in the back half of 2026 as volumes rise and projects complete. ¹²