U.S. Natural Gas Demand in 2026: Industry Outlook and Market Drivers

Projections for U.S. natural gas demand growth in 2026 (power, industrial, LNG)

The provided ONEOK Q1 2026 earnings transcript excerpts do not give explicit, quantified percentage projections for 2026 natural gas demand growth split across power, industrial, and LNG. Instead, management describes the demand outlook qualitatively and highlights specific drivers and timing that imply growth support in each segment.

Overall 2026 demand outlook (cross-sector)

• Management states U.S. natural gas demand is growing across power generation (including data centers), industrial activity, and LNG exports, explicitly framing these as the key demand vectors for the market in 2026. ¹
• They also highlight that LNG export capacity alone is protected to more than double over the next decade, reinforcing a durable call on natural gas/LNG-linked demand (not a 2026-only number, but it supports the multi-year demand trajectory that underpins 2026 volumes). ²

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Power sector (including data centers / AI-driven power demand)

While there is no 2026 power-sector growth rate stated, the transcript provides direct evidence of incremental demand tied to power/AI buildouts:

• Management emphasizes power generation for emerging data center demand as a component of U.S. natural gas demand growth. ²
• They also describe “advanced discussions” with AI and power demand and say they have projects “in the queue” that will be in 2026 and ’27, indicating expected demand support beginning in 2026. ³

Bottom line for power in 2026: the excerpts support continued positive demand growth in 2026 driven by data-center and AI-linked power demand, but no numeric growth forecast (e.g., “X%”) is provided in the text. ³²

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Industrial sector (industry + petrochemicals)

Again, there is no quantified 2026 industrial demand growth rate in the excerpts, but management explicitly includes industrial as a demand pillar:

• Management states natural gas demand growth is supported by industrial activity (alongside power and LNG exports). ²
• For downstream-linked demand, they say demand is supported by downstream markets including power generation, industrial, and petrochemical demand, and export linked markets. ⁴
• They further describe that LNG-linked and petrochemical/international-linked dynamics support broader hydrocarbon demand and infrastructure needs (especially important given their integrated gas liquids/value-chain positioning). ¹

Bottom line for industrial in 2026: the excerpts indicate industrial/petrochemical demand remains supportive for natural gas (and related NGLs) in the 2026 timeframe, but no specific 2026 growth percentage is stated. ⁴²

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LNG sector (U.S. LNG exports / export capacity build)

For LNG, the transcript is more specific about capacity/demand direction, though still not giving an exact “2026-only growth %”:

• Management explicitly includes LNG exports as part of growing U.S. natural gas demand. ²
• They state that LNG export capacity alone is protected to more than double over the next decade, which is a structural projection supporting continued LNG-linked demand growth through and beyond 2026. ²
• They also provide a timeline reference: LNG going from 18 Bcf to 30 Bcf basically by 2030. ⁵
  (This is not a 2026 number, but it indicates the direction and magnitude of incremental LNG demand capacity over time.)
• They describe how geopolitical disruptions are expected to drive incremental LNG capacity landing back in the United States, supporting U.S. LNG demand trajectory. ⁵
• Additionally, they note strong interest/acceleration in contracting for export-related capacity (including LPG export docks in their integrated business context) and cite tailwinds not only in ’26, but beyond. ⁶

Bottom line for LNG in 2026: the excerpts support solid LNG-linked demand growth in 2026 (including capacity/buildout tailwinds), but the text provides structural/multi-year capacity projections rather than a 2026-specific growth rate by LNG volume. ⁵⁶²

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Summary table (what the excerpts do—and do not—contain)

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Conclusion

The provided filings do not contain quantified projections for 2026 U.S. natural gas demand growth split across power, industrial, and LNG. What they do provide is a clear qualitative outlook that demand growth is expected to be driven by:

• Power generation (especially data centers/AI), with projects slated for 2026 and ’27. ³²
• Industrial and petrochemical activity, cited as a direct demand support alongside power. ⁴²
• LNG exports, with strong structural support from protected LNG export capacity growth (more than doubling over the next decade) and a broader LNG volume ramp path (18 Bcf to 30 Bcf by 2030). ⁵²

If you need a precise numeric “2026 growth rate by sector,” that specific data is not present in the excerpts provided. ³⁴²