Marsh RIS Offsets Pricing Pressure with Marsh Risk Growth in Q2 2026

Reconciling Pricing Headwinds With Continued RIS Growth

The reconciliation is that pricing pressure is concentrated in particular lines—most severely Guy Carpenter’s property-catastrophe reinsurance—while Marsh Risk is producing broad-based growth through new business, producer hiring, specialty expansion, and greater demand for complex risk solutions. The result is not that pricing has ceased to matter; rather, management expects growth in the larger Marsh Risk business and other Guy Carpenter activities to offset much of the pressure.

1. The pricing headwind is real, but concentrated

Guy Carpenter was the clearest drag. Its revenue declined 2% in the second quarter, and the rate headwind reduced its underlying growth by approximately 6 percentage points. ¹ Property-catastrophe pricing was especially adverse: Guy Carpenter’s property-catastrophe rate-on-line index fell 16% at midyear, the steepest decline in the index’s 25-year history. ²

The exposure is meaningful because property represents approximately 50% of Guy Carpenter’s global portfolio, and Guy Carpenter has the largest property-catastrophe book in the market. ² Moreover, the first half normally represents roughly three-quarters of Guy Carpenter’s annual revenue, so the weak first half is not immaterial to the full-year outcome. ¹

Accordingly, management is not assuming that Guy Carpenter will simply overcome the property pricing cycle through volume. Guy Carpenter’s revenue was flat on an underlying basis for the first six months, despite double-digit new-business growth and high-90s client retention. ¹ The second quarter was also affected by market consolidation, including M&A activity that was unfavorable to the business. ³

2. Marsh Risk provides the principal offset

The more important offset is Marsh Risk, which is substantially larger and was performing better. Marsh Risk generated second-quarter underlying growth of 4%, with U.S. and Canada accelerating to 4% from 3% in the first quarter and international growth remaining solid at 5%. ⁴ International growth included 5% in EMEA, 5% in Asia Pacific, and 8% in Latin America. ⁴

That performance occurred despite pricing pressure. Management stated that international pricing was generally declining more than in the United States, while U.S. excess-casualty pricing was still increasing in the mid-teens because of the difficult litigation and liability environment. ⁵ Thus, the international result is particularly important: it indicates that client additions, exposure growth, specialty mix, and share gains can outweigh lower rates in at least parts of the portfolio.

The growth was also broad rather than dependent on one isolated market. In the U.S. and Canada, new-business growth was high single digits and reached double digits in Marsh Risk, with double-digit growth in marine, transactional risk, construction, aviation, and energy and power. ⁶ Digital infrastructure was beginning to make a meaningful contribution across several specialties, while sales capacity and sales-leader hiring continued to expand. ⁶

3. Hires matter because they increase future production capacity

The hiring program should be viewed primarily as a capacity and market-share investment, not as an immediate dollar-for-dollar offset to rate declines. Management highlighted strong hiring in the United States, particularly the addition of lateral production talent, alongside strong U.S. new-business performance. ³

The strategy also includes investing in the middle market, expanding in faster-growing sectors such as digital infrastructure, defense and security, hiring and cultivating producers, and building facilities and fast-track capabilities. ⁷ These investments can support revenue growth over time by adding producers, increasing client coverage, and improving the firm’s ability to address specialized risks.

There is evidence that the investment is already contributing, but the full benefit is still developing. Management said sales capacity continued to grow, sales-leader growth was strong, and the trend was expected to continue into the second half. ⁶ The appropriate interpretation is therefore near-term contribution plus longer-term operating capacity, rather than an assumption that all hires immediately replace lost pricing revenue.

4. New business is the more immediate offset

New business is the clearest near-term counterweight to pricing. Guy Carpenter reported record first-half new business, strong double-digit new-business growth, and its strongest-ever RFP win rate, despite the property-catastrophe pricing decline. ² Marsh Risk also reported a very strong U.S. new-business quarter, while its international operations benefited from strong new-business growth in areas such as the Pacific region. ³⁸

Guy Carpenter is additionally finding growth outside property catastrophe. International facultative reinsurance grew at double-digit rates, casualty grew at a strong mid-single-digit rate, and capital and advisory delivered strong double-digit growth in M&A advisory, structured deals, sidecars, and other capital structures. ² It also led 20 catastrophe-bond issuances totaling $5 billion of limit in the first half, a record for Guy Carpenter. ²

These areas are strategically important because they reduce dependence on property-catastrophe pricing. They also reflect rising client demand for alternative sources of capital and more sophisticated risk-financing structures, even when traditional reinsurance pricing is soft. ²⁸

5. Demand is being driven by risk complexity, not merely insurance rates

Management’s broader thesis is that lower insurance pricing does not eliminate the need for advice. Clients are facing more uncertainty, volatility, protection gaps, and complex risk-transfer problems, which can increase demand for brokerage, analytics, capital advisory, and specialty solutions even when premium rates decline. ⁶⁸

This is why the firm emphasizes helping clients connect risks with multiple sources of capital, including traditional insurers, captives, and alternative capital. ⁸⁹ The value proposition is therefore expanding beyond placing conventional insurance at a market rate toward designing and financing complex risk solutions.

That distinction is important: pricing affects the amount of premium on which brokerage economics may be based, but it does not necessarily determine the volume or complexity of advisory work, the number of placements, or the firm’s share of client wallet. The excerpts support this mechanism through the combination of lower rates, strong RFP win rates, new-business growth, specialty growth, and record catastrophe-bond activity. ⁶²

6. Why management can still target growth similar to last year

The second-quarter results show the underlying bridge. Risk & Insurance Services produced 3% underlying revenue growth in the quarter and 3% for the first six months, while Marsh Risk grew 4% in the quarter and 4% for the first half. ⁴ Guy Carpenter was the principal offset, declining 2% in the quarter and remaining flat for the first half on an underlying basis. ⁴¹

In simplified terms:

Therefore, the guidance is best understood as a portfolio-level expectation: continued growth at Marsh Risk, increasing contribution from hires and new business, and better performance from non-property Guy Carpenter activities are expected to offset a substantial portion of the property-catastrophe pricing drag.

Bottom line

There is no contradiction, but the guidance does depend on several specific assumptions:

1. Marsh Risk continues to outgrow the consolidated RIS segment, supported by new business, producer additions, specialty growth, and international expansion. ⁶⁴
2. Guy Carpenter’s non-property and capital-advisory businesses continue to grow, partly offsetting continued weakness in property catastrophe. ²
3. New-business momentum remains strong enough to offset lower pricing, particularly in the U.S., specialty lines, and alternative-capital activities. ⁶²
4. Recent hiring contributes increasingly through the second half and beyond, rather than fully offsetting pricing immediately. ⁶³
5. Client demand for complex risk solutions remains resilient, even as conventional insurance prices fall. ⁸⁹

The prudent reading is that management is guiding to similar organic growth because of mix, share gains, volume, and broader risk-advisory demand—not because pricing headwinds are benign. The main risk to that outlook is that property-catastrophe pricing remains weaker for longer, or that new-business and hiring gains fail to scale quickly enough; the excerpts show that Guy Carpenter had not yet offset that pressure in the first half. ²⁴¹