ASML Reaffirms 2026 Outlook with EUR 36–40B Sales and 51–53% Margin

Key assumptions behind ASML’s updated 2026 outlook (EUR 36B–40B net sales; 51%–53% gross margin)

Management updated its 2026 net-sales outlook to EUR 36B–40B while maintaining gross-margin expectations of 51%–53%. ¹²

Below are the key underlying assumptions, focused on (i) EUV (Low NA/High NA), (ii) non‑EUV growth, and (iii) Installed Base ramp dynamics, as evidenced in the excerpts.

1) EUV outlook assumptions (Low NA + High NA)

A. EUV demand is expected to be strong in 2026, with Low NA and High NA both contributing

ASML explicitly frames 2026 as a “strong year” for EUV, specifically “in combination of Low NA and High NA.” ¹ The broader demand backdrop is also tied to customers increasing capex and “accelerat[ing]… their capacity ramp in 2026 and beyond.” ³

B. Low NA EUV delivery/output is a central volume assumption

A concrete operational assumption is that ASML can drive at least 60 EUV Low NA systems output for 2026, “what we currently have” and “currently driving.” ⁴ This is the most direct “throughput/shipments” assumption supporting the EUV component of the net-sales range. ⁴

C. EUV throughput improvements support capacity (and therefore sales realization) timing

Management links near-term capacity to technology execution and tool throughput:

• Throughput increase on an existing platform: NXE:3800E increased from 220 to 230 wafers per hour. ⁵
• Upcoming platform spec increase: NXE:3800F expected at 260 wafers per hour (up from 250). ⁵ These statements indicate an assumption that higher wafers-per-hour specs help customers get more production out of installed tools, supporting the capacity builds that underpin EUV demand and the ability to convert orders into revenue within the guidance window. ⁵³

D. High NA readiness is assumed to be progressing well (even if the near-term sales emphasis is not quantified)

While the excerpts do not quantify High NA unit volumes in 2026, they provide assumptions about customer pull-through:

• Customers are beginning to discuss High NA; DRAM/logic examples include reducing EUV masks from 3 to 1 and process steps from 100 to 10, which management presents as “the reason why we have High NA.” ⁶
• Management also cites ecosystem progress and “better availability data” (more wafers per day / wafers out), and that High NA testing is occurring on real products. ⁶ Together these points support the assumption that High NA is not an uncertain “future option,” but a maturing value proposition that sustains demand for EUV capacity, even as Low NA remains the quantified 2026 output anchor. ⁶⁴

2) Non‑EUV growth assumptions

A. Non‑EUV is no longer expected to be flat; it is expected to grow

Initially ASML expected non‑EUV to be “flat in comparison to last year,” but management says it now expects “an increase of demand there as well,” translating into “increased revenue on the non‑EUV business.” ¹ This is a key assumption because net sales of EUR 36B–40B require contributions not just from EUV. ¹

B. The non‑EUV increase is assumed across multiple product components (immersion, dry, application)

Management specifies that immersion/Dry and application segments are performing well:

• Immersion deep UV demand had a “slow start” because ASML expected lower demand, but “has now reversed itself,” and ASML still expects immersion sales for 2026 to be “pretty close to the immersion sales that we had last year in terms of unit numbers.” ⁴
• Also, management states “the dry business is doing quite nicely and also the application business.” ¹ These excerpts imply the non‑EUV growth assumption is supported by both (i) unit recovery for immersion and (ii) strength across dry/application. ⁴¹

C. Non‑EUV expected alignment is tied to customer node plans (not just general market recovery)

Management expects non‑EUV to be “in line with what customers are asking for, for all of their nodes.” ⁴ That ties non‑EUV revenue performance to the same end-market capacity ramps that drive litho intensity increases. ⁴³

3) Installed Base ramp dynamics (and why it matters for sales and margins)

A. Installed Base is assumed to grow meaningfully and remain a material revenue contributor

For the near-term pattern, ASML expects EUR 2.5B of Installed Base business in Q2, explicitly included within the total net-sales outlook. ⁷ In Q1, management reports Installed Base revenue at EUR 2.5B, “a little bit above the guidance,” reinforcing that Installed Base is tracking stronger than earlier expectations. ⁸

B. The 2026 net-sales range implicitly assumes Installed Base continues to scale with customer capacity ramps

Management’s central “installed base” logic is that customers use installed-base products as a “very fast way… to increase their capacity,” resulting in “strong growth” in the Installed Base business. ¹ ASML also emphasizes “working with our customers… in a combination of capacity in terms of new shipments… [and] provide Installed Base products,” indicating Installed Base is part of the mechanism by which customers are enabled to meet demand. ⁴

C. Gross margin support from Installed Base component mix is an explicit margin assumption

Management ties margin outcomes to the Installed Base component mix:

• Q1 gross margin was 53% at the high end of guidance, with Installed Base revenue “higher than we anticipated,” and within Installed Base, “components… at quite some strong gross margins,” driving the “pretty high gross margin at 53%.” ⁸
• Overall, ASML “maintain[s]” its gross margin expectation of 51%–53% for the period that includes the updated net-sales outlook. ² Thus, the margin assumption is not only cost/volume scaling; it specifically includes the expectation that Installed Base component economics will remain favorable (as seen in Q1) while Installed Base ramps with customer capacity needs. ⁸²

4) Export-control flexibility assumption embedded in the guidance window

Although the question focuses on EUV/non‑EUV/Installed Base, ASML also states an additional assumptions layer relevant to the outlook range:

• Within the EUR 36B–40B guidance, ASML believes it can “accommodate potential outcomes of the export control discussions that are currently ongoing.” ¹

This implies the planning ranges are built with some buffer for regulatory outcomes, which reduces the likelihood that the guidance assumes a single binary export-control scenario. ¹

Summary: how the three drivers connect to the updated numbers

• EUV (Low NA/High NA): Strong EUV year in 2026, anchored by quantified ≥60 Low NA EUV systems output and supported by throughput improvements; High NA is assumed to be progressing well enough with customer interest and ecosystem maturity to sustain demand. ¹⁴⁵⁶
• Non‑EUV growth: Non‑EUV is assumed to turn from “flat” to increased revenue with recovery/support from immersion dynamics plus strength in dry and application; it’s tied to customers’ multi-node requirements. ¹⁴
• Installed Base ramp: Installed Base is assumed to show strong growth because it is a “fast way” for customers to add capacity; Q1 shows margin support via favorable Installed Base component mix, supporting the broader 51%–53% gross margin maintenance. ¹⁸²

All together, these assumptions justify (i) why ASML widened/increased the 2026 net-sales window to EUR 36B–40B and (ii) why it can maintain gross margins at 51%–53%. ¹²