ASML's management describes a dual-path migration, where customers seek both upgrades to existing platforms and the fastest possible new tools. The decision between upgrading and adopting the F-tool depends on capacity needs, platform maturity, and RAM execution from E to F.
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What did management say about Upgrade vs new tool migration dynamics?
Management framed the migration as a simultaneous demand for (1) upgrading existing platforms and (2) installing the newest “fastest possible tool.” They said customers want to buy the fastest possible tool and that this drove a “pretty fast migration towards the 3800E,” which they described as the tool customers want. They also said customers “also want to upgrade existing system because typically they sit on different technologies.” 1
They further characterized the transition as an “appetite for both upgrade but also for faster tool” and stated that “our customer… they want both, and they want as much as both as possible.” 1
Management indicated the determining factors for moving from E to F are not just product availability, but platform maturity and ASML’s ability to execute the RAM process “going from E to F.” 1
They described the dynamic as “very normal” and analogous to earlier migrations (“that’s what we have done with the E”). 1
Implication for your question: this suggests that upgrade feasibility (through RAM and platform maturity) is a key variable in how much of the demand expresses itself as upgrades vs new-tool purchases.
On the upgrade side, management explicitly linked upgrade demand to the customer need to add capacity quickly: the “key element” is that the customer wants “to get more capacity on their existing fab as quickly as possible.” 2
They said this creates “really strong condition for system upgrade,” and asserted that it is true “this year,” expected to remain true “next year,” and “mostly beyond that,” tied to continued demand for capacity at “very successful advanced node[s].” 2
They also described strong customer acceptance of ASML’s upgrade product that covers “all the different version[s] of our EUV Low-NA or immersion system,” with management stating they are requested to accelerate and that ASML plans to do new product in 2027 and even 2028. 2
In the excerpt, management did not provide a fully itemized “decision tree,” but it did emphasize the underlying customer driver and the conditions under which F becomes attractive:
Management described a market dynamic where:
While the question asks specifically about decision dynamics, management’s discussion indicates the transition won’t be binary:
They quantified the scale of demand by explaining that tool improvements correspond to more than just unit growth: they cited “30% more tools” (boxes) and estimated that, given tool mix differences, the effective wafer capacity impact is about “approximately 45%.” 4 They then stated that upgrades provide an “another significant uptick,” reinforcing that upgrades matter alongside new shipments. 4
Management said the E-to-F migration is characterized by strong simultaneous demand for upgrading existing E platforms and purchasing the next-generation faster tool, driven by customer desire for speed-to-capacity and enabled by platform maturity plus ASML’s RAM execution from E to F. 12 They indicated the practical “split” depends on capacity constraints, timing/ready-when-needed dynamics, and roadmap matching (F aligned to 1.4 nm, while 2 nm can be handled via E/F mix-and-match, with F becoming attractive when more capacity is needed). 3
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