Industry Disruption Due to Global Trade and Tariffs
The company observed a surge in imports across key markets, contrary to expectations of import redirection due to tariffs.
Tariffs began to be collected in early May, but import surges persisted into the second quarter, driven by speculation and supply chain delays.
Management expects import levels to decline in the third quarter as the discourse around tariffs stabilizes, but potential new tariffs in Europe remain a concern.
Top 4 DMAs (Los Angeles, San Francisco, Houston, Phoenix) experienced outsized macroeconomic pressures in Q2, contributing to a 30 basis point reduction in system-wide same-restaurant sales.
Markets affected by macro pressures saw a significant downturn starting mid-June, punctuated by headlines and macroeconomic news.
Management remains optimistic that consumer sentiment volatility will moderate over time, which could stabilize sales.