Tariff-Related Inventory Valuation Headwinds and Price/Cos Impact
The company highlighted tariff-related LIFO inventory valuation headwinds impacting gross margins, with an estimated 80 basis points of the 50 basis points gross margin decline for the year attributable to LIFO.
Management emphasized that these impacts are mostly transitory and expect gross margins to recover over time as they work back toward their price-cost neutrality target.
The September pricing cycle will include further increases on products directly imported by Grainger, expected to add 2% to 2.5% net annualized price inflation, contributing to a total of approximately 1% price increase for 2025.
Impact of Incremental Tariffs on Profitability and Margins
The net impact of tariffs was around the top end of the estimated range for the quarter, approximately $250 million to $350 million.
Tariffs impacted all three primary segments, with about 55% of the impact in Construction Industries, 20% in Resource Industries, and 25% in Energy & Transportation.
The company expects the net impact from tariffs for 2025 to be around $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, net of mitigating actions.
Management emphasized the fluidity of trade negotiations and the uncertainty surrounding future tariff impacts, with plans to implement long-term mitigation strategies once clarity is achieved.
The company is considering all options, including sourcing adjustments and pricing strategies, to mitigate tariff impacts over the medium to long term.
Impact of Trade Uncertainty on 2025 Outlook and Margin Management
Timken has reduced the high end of its 2025 earnings guidance due to cautious outlook on the second half, primarily driven by trade uncertainty.
The volatile tariff environment has led to incremental costs, but the company is actively passing these costs into the market through repricing, with some lag.
Timken estimates a full-year net negative impact from tariffs of approximately $10 million, an improvement from previous estimates of $25 million, with full mitigation expected by 2026.