Impact of Trade Uncertainty on 2025 Outlook and Margin Management
Timken has reduced the high end of its 2025 earnings guidance due to cautious outlook on the second half, primarily driven by trade uncertainty.
The volatile tariff environment has led to incremental costs, but the company is actively passing these costs into the market through repricing, with some lag.
Timken estimates a full-year net negative impact from tariffs of approximately $10 million, an improvement from previous estimates of $25 million, with full mitigation expected by 2026.
Tariff-Related Inventory Valuation Headwinds and Price/Cos Impact
The company highlighted tariff-related LIFO inventory valuation headwinds impacting gross margins, with an estimated 80 basis points of the 50 basis points gross margin decline for the year attributable to LIFO.
Management emphasized that these impacts are mostly transitory and expect gross margins to recover over time as they work back toward their price-cost neutrality target.
The September pricing cycle will include further increases on products directly imported by Grainger, expected to add 2% to 2.5% net annualized price inflation, contributing to a total of approximately 1% price increase for 2025.