U.S. LNG and NGL Export Outlook for 2026: Market Expectations and Constraints

Expectations for global demand for U.S. LNG and U.S. NGL (especially LPG/propane & butane) exports in 2026 (per the provided excerpts)

1) U.S. LNG demand: expected to rise, with higher utilization supported by low global storage and disruptions

• Management expects LNG export demand to increase by ~7 Bcf/day by 2027 (i.e., a rising demand trajectory that begins in the near term). ¹
• They also describe conditions that should support U.S. LNG utilization rates above historical levels: EU storage is exiting winter at the second-lowest level on record and fell below 30% by end of Q1, and EU imports from the Middle East declined 91% in March and April. ¹
• Additionally, they state supply outages and disruptions in the Middle East are likely to result in reduced LNG exports throughout 2026, which implies external sources of LNG supply are constrained during 2026. ¹
• Because the EU needs to refill storage to an 80% target ahead of next winter, they expect the EU will need to begin purchasing significant cargoes from the U.S. ¹

Bottom line for 2026 LNG demand: While the excerpts give the clearest numeric demand “increase” through 2027, they explicitly characterize 2026 as a year when low storage and Middle East supply disruptions should drive material incremental U.S. LNG buying and above-historical U.S. LNG utilization. ¹

---

2) U.S. NGL demand (LPG/propane & butane): expected to strengthen as buyers can’t replace Middle East barrels and U.S. exports gain availability

• Management points to global NGL dislocation from Middle East infrastructure attacks, noting that on the demand side, major buyers like China and India were heavily reliant on the Middle East for supply and have no other options to replace these barrels except lifting more volume from the U.S. ²
• They also frame the U.S. as the other major waterborne LPG supplier, reinforcing that when Middle East flows are disrupted, U.S. supply becomes the alternative source. ²
• They cite incremental U.S. export capacity as timely tailwind: the U.S. added up to 610 thousand barrels/day of LPG export capacity over the past year, taking total terminal capacity to ~3 million barrels/day, with additional expansions through 2028 adding ~another 1 million barrels/day. ³
• They further indicate that the market is already responding: they report a sharp increase in export volumes, with propane exports reaching 2.3 million barrels/day “this week”, and they expect record-level exports to sustain in the months ahead (which supports demand/throughput expectations across the near term that includes 2026). ³

Bottom line for 2026 NGL demand: The excerpts describe structural demand support in 2026: Middle East supply disruption limits replacement options for China/India, and U.S. LPG export capacity plus inventories are positioned to meet that incremental demand. ²³

---

3) How the excerpt ties demand expectations to “can the U.S. supply it?” constraints (important context for 2026)

• Management emphasizes a key constraint: “the world would like us to do the MAX export case; we just do not have enough supply,” and they describe the real “tug-of-war” as between domestic demand vs. international exports as the U.S. enters winter. ⁴
• They quantify the potential “MAX” backfill as limited: if war were resolved quickly and losses totaled 120 million barrels or more of LPG, they estimate the U.S. could backfill about 30 million barrels—and “even at the MAX export case, we do not come close to backfilling the loss.” ⁵

Implication for 2026 expectations: Global buyers likely want more U.S. volumes, but the excerpts suggest inventory/drawdown constraints will cap how much additional NGL export demand can be satisfied continuously through 2026. ⁴⁵

---

Summary answer (directly to the question)

• U.S. LNG (2026): Expectations in the excerpts are that global demand for U.S. LNG increases in 2026, supported by very low EU storage, sharply reduced Middle East LNG exports, and the resulting need for the EU to purchase significant U.S. cargoes—which management links to U.S. LNG utilization running above historical levels. ¹
• U.S. NGL exports (2026): Expectations are for stronger global demand for U.S. NGL/LPG exports in 2026 because major Middle East-dependent buyers (notably China and India) have limited replacement options and therefore must lift more from the U.S.; management also points to recent U.S. LPG dock capacity additions and rising export volumes (including propane), consistent with sustained demand/throughput into the year. ²³