Antero Resources Outlines 2026 Growth CapEx, 2027 Impact From 4Q Completions

Antero Resources: Plan for growth CapEx in 2026 and implications for 2027 (rig count, maintenance vs. growth, and deploying remaining growth capital)

1) 2026 growth CapEx plan: rig deployment and the “maintenance vs growth” structure

• Current rig count / near-term change: Management indicated they are drilling with 4 rigs currently, with “1’s in transition” so the rig count will be down to 3 “in the next month.” ¹
• How those rigs are being used (maintenance vs growth): Management said the 3 rigs are drilling “those 3 pads that we talked about,” and are operating “on the difference between maintenance and growth capital.” ²
• Maintenance vs growth capital amounts for 2026: Management stated maintenance capital is $1.0 billion and growth capital is $1.2 billion for the year. ²
• Where spending is likely to land vs the growth budget: Management said they are “somewhere a bit north of $1 billion” on capital, but not at the $1.2 billion level “a lot of that will be completion capital in the fourth quarter.” ²

Key interpretation: The company appears to be running a 3-rig drilling program in the near term, while the full annual growth capital weighting is expected to shift toward completions in 4Q rather than all occurring in earlier quarters. ¹²

2) Implications for 2027: what gets carried into 2027 via completions

• Completion timing and 2027 impact: Management explicitly linked the completion of wells to the 2027 period: “If you complete those wells, then that takes 2027, I imagine…” ²
• Uncertainty around deploying remaining growth capital: Management noted that the amount not yet deployed is largely tied to 4Q completion capital, and they said it remains “yet to be determined whether we deploy that.” ²

Key implication: Even though the drilling plan is concentrated in 2026 (3 rigs after near-term transition), growth execution is effectively “deferred” into 2027 if/when 4Q completions are carried through. ²

3) “Deployment of remaining growth capital” in 2026: what will determine whether it gets used

• Completion capital still to be determined: The remaining growth capital is largely completion-related in 4Q, and whether it is deployed depends on conditions at the time. ²
• Management’s stated decision framework (gas price hurdle concept): Management said they have indicated that for a “$3+ gas” scenario, deployment is something they “would [deploy]… but we will just have to determine that when we get there.” ²

Additional context on what drives growth vs maintenance economics:

• Management described liquids development as more “steady state of maintenance,” and stated “the true growth capital is more around the dry gas.” ³
• They further characterized the dry gas growth hurdle around Henry Hub ~$3 as a “good number to think about” in their discussion. ³

Key takeaway: The remaining 2026 growth capital appears conditional—particularly on whether the company decides the gas-price environment supports deploying growth completions that would then flow into 2027 activity/production. ²³

4) Rig count and 2027: does 2026’s rig program translate into growth in 2027?

The excerpts do not provide an explicit 2027 rig-count plan. However, they do provide a causal chain tying 2026 growth capital deployment to 2027:

• The company is operating at 4 rigs now, moving to 3 rigs in the next month while drilling pads tied to the maintenance vs growth capital boundary. ¹²
• The growth spending gap vs the $1.2B growth budget is largely expected to be completion capital in 4Q. ²
• Completing those wells pushes timing into 2027. ²

Implication: If the company deploys the remaining 4Q growth completion capital, it would logically support growth execution in 2027, even though the incremental drilling rig count is not shown as rising beyond the 3-rig program referenced for 2026. ²

5) Summary: 2026 growth CapEx plan and what it means for 2027

• 2026 rig count: 4 rigs currently, transitioning to 3 rigs. ¹
• Maintenance vs growth capital (2026): Maintenance $1.0B, growth $1.2B, but total capital is “north of $1.0B” and not yet at $1.2B because much of the remaining growth is completion capital in 4Q. ²
• 2027 implication: Growth that depends on completing 2026 wells is expected to land in 2027. ²
• How remaining growth capital gets deployed: Deployment of 4Q completion capital is not fully determined and is tied to a gas-price “$3+” hurdle framework, with management stating they would likely deploy under that condition but will decide when they get there. ²
• Maintenance vs growth composition: Liquids are described as more steady-state maintenance, while dry gas is the focus for true growth capital. ³

Overall, the excerpted plan depicts a disciplined 2026 drilling posture (3-rig steady state) paired with growth completions that are partly deferred and conditional, meaning 2027 growth execution depends heavily on whether management commits the remaining growth completion capital in 4Q 2026 under the stated gas-price hurdle logic. ¹²³