First BanCorp 2026 Loan Growth Cadence and Full-Year Guidance

Can you provide loan growth cadence by business line and quarter to reach the 3%–5% full-year target?

Based on the provided 2026 Q1 earnings call excerpts, First BanCorp reiterates a full-year loan growth guidance of 3%–5%. However, the excerpts do not provide enough business-line or quarterly loan balance-growth detail to build a precise “cadence by business line and quarter” plan (e.g., explicit target growth rates for consumer vs. commercial vs. mortgage in Q2/Q3/Q4, or starting/ending loan balances by line). What we can do is translate management’s commentary into a cadence framework consistent with the target, using only what is explicitly stated.

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1) What management has said about the path to 3%–5% (quarterly “shape”)

Q1 (current run-rate: slight contraction in total loans, offset by other growth)

• Management states that “Total loans declined slightly to $13.1 billion” in Q1 2026. ¹
• Management also explains this is consistent with seasonality and “expected softening in the credit demand within the consumer lending segment.” ¹

Implication for cadence: Q1 is not the “front-loaded” quarter for loan growth; instead it appears to be a plateau/contraction quarter driven mainly by consumer softness, while other categories are positioned to pick up later. ¹

Q2–Q4 (re-acceleration expected via consumer payoff settlement + commercial and mortgage growth)

• When asked what “needs to happen” to reach 3%–5% loan growth, management replies: “it’s going to take til the end of the year to consumer payoff and originations to settle.” ²
• In the same answer, management says they expect “additional commercial growth both in Puerto Rico and Florida” based on pipelines. ²
• They also expect “some additional growth in the mortgage portfolio” where demand remains strong. ²

Implication for cadence: The model to reach 3%–5% is effectively:

1. Consumer headwind persists into Q2/Q3 as payoffs and originations “settle,” and
2. Commercial (PR + FL) and mortgage contribute meaningfully in Q2–Q4 to pull total loans up into the 3%–5% band. ²

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2) Consumer vs. Commercial vs. Mortgage: what the excerpts support (and what they don’t)

Consumer lending cadence (headwind in the near term)

• Management’s framing is that consumer demand softens and Q1 total loan decline reflects this. ¹
• They say additional contraction in the consumer portfolio is “a reality” because it takes until year-end for consumer payoff and originations to settle. ²
• Separately, they note industry auto sales were down 19% vs. Q3 last year (with management suggesting a different underlying “price issue” adjusted view). ³²
• Management also indicates early delinquency improvements and stability, but that is credit quality, not directly loan growth cadence. ⁴⁵

What we can say about cadence (explicitly supported):

• Consumer is the timing headwind that suppresses growth in early quarters. ¹²
• The headwind persists through the year but management expects it to “settle” by year-end. ²

What we cannot quantify from the excerpts:

• No table, target, or percentage is provided for consumer loan growth by quarter (Q2/Q3/Q4). ⁶³²

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Commercial lending cadence (pickup in later quarters)

• Management explicitly expects additional commercial growth in Puerto Rico and Florida “based on what we have at hand in the pipelines today.” ²

What we can say about cadence (explicitly supported):

• Commercial is expected to be the growth engine in the later part of the year, even while consumer remains constrained early. ²

What we cannot quantify from the excerpts:

• No explicit quarterly growth rates or loan-balance deltas for commercial are given. ⁶³²

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Mortgage cadence (supportive demand; additional growth expected)

• Management expects “some additional growth in the mortgage portfolio” because demand continues strong. ²

What we can say about cadence (explicitly supported):

• Mortgage is expected to contribute positive growth alongside commercial in Q2–Q4. ²

What we cannot quantify from the excerpts:

• No quarterly mortgage growth targets or split of mortgage production vs. amortization/paydowns is provided. ⁶³²

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3) A “cadence” you can responsibly infer (framework, not a numeric schedule)

Because the excerpts do not give the internal loan balances by line through Q2/Q3, the only defensible output is a directional cadence that must sum to a 3%–5% full-year outcome.

Directional cadence consistent with management’s explanation

• Q1: Total loans slightly down to $13.1B, driven by consumer demand softening. ¹
• Q2: Continued consumer runoff/payoff pressure (“until the end of the year to consumer payoff and originations to settle”), while commercial pipeline execution and mortgage demand begin to add growth. ²
• Q3: Further progress toward the “settled” consumer profile; commercial and mortgage continue to provide the incremental growth needed. ²
• Q4: Consumer portfolio effects fully settle by year-end, with commercial and mortgage contributions positioned to bring total loan growth into the 3%–5% full-year guidance. ²⁶

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4) Why a precise numeric “by business line and quarter” table isn’t supported by the excerpts

To build a “loan growth cadence by business line and quarter to reach 3%–5%,” we would need at minimum:

• Starting loan balances by line at Q1 (consumer, commercial/PR/FL, mortgage),
• Expected quarterly originations/payoffs (or loan balance changes) by line for Q2/Q3/Q4,
• Or explicit management “bridge” assumptions (e.g., “consumer down X% in Q2, commercial up Y%,” etc.).

The excerpts provide:

• Only the aggregate Q1 total loan decline to $13.1B. ¹
• Only qualitative quarterly timing logic (“until the end of the year to consumer payoff and originations to settle,” plus “additional commercial growth” and “additional mortgage growth”). ²
• No quarterly/line-item targets in percentages or dollars. ⁶³²

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5) Direct answer (what you can take away)

• First BanCorp reiterates a full-year loan growth target of 3%–5%. ⁶
• The cadence implied by management is not front-loaded: Q1 total loans declined slightly due to consumer credit demand softening, and they expect the consumer portfolio to continue to settle until year-end. ¹²
• To still reach 3%–5%, the plan relies on later-year re-acceleration from additional commercial growth (Puerto Rico and Florida) and additional mortgage portfolio growth, with consumer headwind gradually normalizing through Q2–Q4. ²

But: the excerpts do not contain enough quantified information to produce a numeric, quarter-by-quarter growth cadence by business line (consumer vs. commercial vs. mortgage) that mathematically lands exactly in 3%–5% full-year. ⁶³²

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