First BanCorp 2026 Loan Growth Cadence and Segment Outlook

What First BanCorp is saying about loan growth cadence (and why a true “by-business-line, by-quarter” schedule is not disclosed)

First BanCorp maintains its full-year loan growth guidance of 3%–5% for 2026. ¹
However, the provided excerpts do not contain a disaggregated loan growth plan by “business line” (e.g., consumer vs commercial vs mortgage) and by “quarter” (Q2, Q3, Q4) with explicit target percentages or dollar amounts per segment/quarter. The only “cadence” detail disclosed is directional: the company attributes near-term softness to consumer payoff/seasonality and expects commercial and mortgage growth to offset it during the year. ²

As a result, below is the best-supported cadence framework implied by management commentary—expressed in quarterly drivers and the segments expected to carry growth—but it is not a definitive spreadsheet-style quarter-by-quarter target by segment because those targets are not in the excerpts.

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The disclosed cadence logic behind reaching 3%–5% full-year loan growth

Q1 2026: slight decline in total loans; consumer contraction is the key drag

• Management states that total loans declined slightly to $13.1 billion in Q1, consistent with expected softening in the consumer lending segment. ³
• Management reiterates the market backdrop: consumer auto sales were down (industry decline cited as 19% vs Q3 of last year), and guidance remains unchanged at 3%–5%. ⁴²
• Management also states that by seasonally adjusted originations were up 6% YoY, but total loan balances still declined—consistent with payoffs offsetting originations in consumer portfolios. ¹

Implication for cadence: Q1 is the “weak quarter” for loan balances (payoffs > net new growth in consumer), even if gross originations look resilient. ¹³

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What must happen after Q1 to still land in 3%–5% full-year growth

Management answers this directly:

• They say it will take until the end of the year for consumer payoffs and originations to “settle,” and that some additional contraction in the consumer portfolio is reality. ²
• They then identify the offsetting growth sources they expect:
  • additional commercial growth in Puerto Rico and Florida based on pipelines “today.” ²
  • additional growth in the mortgage portfolio, with demand continuing strong. ²

Implication for cadence: to reach a full-year 3%–5% growth target, the “catch-up” is expected to come primarily from commercial + mortgage, while consumer drag persists longer than Q1. ²

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Best-supported “cadence by segment” (directional, not a numeric quarterly target)

Because the excerpts don’t provide explicit quarter-by-quarter percentages for each segment, the most accurate way to present “cadence” is as a driver timetable.

Consumer (drag likely persists beyond Q1)

• Q1: consumer lending softening is explicitly cited as consistent with the slight decline in total loans. ³
• Ongoing through the year: management expects consumer payoffs vs originations to settle by end-of-year, implying continued consumer balance contraction or at least muted net growth through later quarters. ²

Cadence expectation: consumer is the main headwind in Q2–Q4, though originations may stay supported by auto demand/market share rather than collapsing. ²¹

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Commercial (expected to carry growth after Q1)

• Management expects additional commercial growth in Puerto Rico and Florida based on pipelines. ²

Cadence expectation: commercial growth should be heavier in the middle and back half of the year (Q2–Q4) to offset the consumer contraction described for the full remaining year. ²

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Mortgage (expected incremental growth later in the year)

• Management expects additional growth in the mortgage portfolio and states demand continues strong. ²

Cadence expectation: mortgage contributes positively after the consumer headwind continues, likely through Q2–Q4. ²

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A workable framework to “map” the 3%–5% target onto quarters (without overstating precision)

Given:

• Q1 total loans declined slightly (balance headwind). ³
• Consumer contraction is expected to persist until end of year. ²
• Commercial (Puerto Rico + Florida) and mortgage are expected to provide additional growth to make up the shortfall. ²

A logically consistent cadence to reach 3%–5% would look like:

• Q2: still affected by consumer net softness; begin net offset from commercial + mortgage. ²
• Q3: offset strengthens as commercial/mortgage growth continues while consumer net contraction still “settles” later. ²
• Q4: the “settling” of consumer payoffs/origination dynamics completes, with full-year target closure driven by the cumulative contribution of commercial + mortgage. ²

This is consistent with management’s statement that the consumer dynamics won’t fully normalize until end of year, and that commercial/mortgage are the explicit counterbalances. ²

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What you’d need to produce an exact “by business line and quarter” cadence table (not present in excerpts)

To convert the above framework into a numeric quarter-by-quarter by-segment plan (e.g., “Consumer: -1% in Q2, -0.5% in Q3, +0.2% in Q4” and “Commercial: +X% each quarter”), the excerpts would need to include at least one of:

• explicit loan growth by segment for each quarter (or expected average balances), or
• bridge tables from prior quarter ending loans to expected ending loans by segment and quarter, or
• a statement of expected net loan growth by quarter for each major category.

The provided excerpts instead give:

• a single full-year loan growth target range of 3%–5%. ¹
• segment-level drivers (consumer drag; commercial and mortgage support) without quantified quarterly targets. ²
• Q1’s overall direction: total loans declined slightly. ³

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Bottom line answer

• First BanCorp’s disclosed “cadence” to reach 3%–5% full-year loan growth is: consumer remains the drag through much of 2026 until year-end dynamics settle, while commercial (Puerto Rico and Florida) and mortgage provide the incremental growth to offset and achieve the full-year target. ²
• The excerpts do not provide a numeric quarter-by-quarter, business-line-by-business-line growth schedule (e.g., target % or $ net growth per quarter for consumer vs commercial vs mortgage), so an exact cadence table cannot be responsibly constructed from the provided text alone. ²

If you want, I can translate the above driver-based cadence into an “illustrative” quarterly bridge (e.g., showing what net growth must occur in Q2–Q4 assuming Q1 declines), but that would necessarily be an assumption-based model rather than something directly disclosed in the excerpts.