Abbott Expects CGM Growth Acceleration in Fall US Type 2 Coverage

Outlook for Libre CGM growth for the rest of the year (US dual-key sensor timing, US type 2 non-insulin coverage) and whether it will accelerate CGM growth

Where Libre/CGM growth stands today (baseline)

• Abbott described “worldwide growth of 9.5%” for Libre/CGM and characterized the “remainder of this year” outlook in the context of reimbursement-driven growth dynamics. ¹
• Management also noted that when there is no major reimbursement expansion, the market can show a “plateau” around “8%, 9% growth,” which they do not view as poor, but “not as high as what we have seen before.” ²

Rest-of-year outlook: what could change in the second half

Abbott’s answer to “what is the outlook for the CGM business for the remainder of this year” centers on reimbursement expansion timing and product/portfolio readiness rather than a specific quantified CGM forecast in the excerpt. ¹

1) US type 2 non-insulin coverage (key potential step-change)

• Abbott identified US type 2 as “a huge opportunity” that will “unlock around 10 million Medicare beneficiaries.” ³
• Abbott also said this US type 2 reimbursement/coverage change “is going to accelerate commercial insurance coverage,” and that it “could happen in the fall.” ³
• Importantly, management added: “I cannot forecast it exactly when exactly it is going to happen,” but “when it does happen, it is going to definitely accelerate our sales.” ³
• Abbott described that it is “planning and positioning” for the change “as it relates to Salesforce, distribution, etcetera” to capitalize on the opportunity once it arrives. ³

Implication for the rest of the year: If the US type 2 expansion lands in the fall as management expects “could” happen, it is the clearest catalyst in the excerpt for accelerating Libre CGM growth beyond the current ~8–9% “plateau” range that occurs absent major reimbursement moves. ³²

2) US dual-key glucose sensor (DGK) timing

• For the dual-key glucose sensor (referred to as “DGK”), Abbott said discussions are “very, very advanced” and “in, I would call, very, very advanced kind of final stages.” ⁴
• Abbott declined to “forecast that” timing, but stated: “As soon as we have it approved, we will issue a press release and we will go and start preparing the market.” ⁴
• Abbott also referenced early signals from Europe: it was “hearing great things” from “some of the … European positions” that had “early access” to the product. ⁴

Implication for the rest of the year: The excerpt supports that approval (and then launch preparation) is the near-term gating event, but it does not commit to a specific quarter/month within the rest of the year. ⁴ That makes it a potentially material accelerator if approval occurs, but with timing uncertainty in the provided text. ⁴

What Abbott says about whether these developments accelerate or merely maintain growth

Management directly answered the investor question about whether these events would accelerate growth or maintain the current rate:

• Abbott said that the “number 1… has the most immediate impact… is really reimbursement expansion.” ⁵
• Management contrasted periods without reimbursement changes: without a major reimbursement expansion, they “see this kind of market growth plateau” of “like 8%, 9% growth.” ²
• For acceleration, Abbott said: “Right? Like any 1 of these markets that goes to reimbursement expansion… it drastically accelerates the growth rate as we have seen in the past.” ²
• They also stated that the challenge is “trying to pinpoint the exact month or quarter as to when that reimbursement expansion is gonna happen,” which affects how much acceleration shows up in a specific quarter. ²
• For the US type 2 opportunity specifically, Abbott reiterated: “when it does happen, it is gonna definitely accelerate our sales.” ³
• For dual-key (DGK), they indicated momentum/benefit depends on reaching approval, then executing market preparation; however, they did not claim a guaranteed near-term acceleration in the excerpt. ⁴

Bottom line: could these developments accelerate CGM growth, and can they maintain the current rate?

Can they accelerate growth?

• Yes, in principle—especially via US type 2 coverage. Abbott explicitly ties acceleration to reimbursement expansion and states that the US type 2 change “could happen in the fall” and “when it does happen, it is going to definitely accelerate our sales.” ³²
• Dual-key DGK is a potential accelerator but timing is uncertain. Abbott says the regulatory/discussion stage is “very, very advanced” and will move quickly after approval, but it “cannot forecast” the timing. ⁴ If approval occurs in the rest of the year, that could add incremental growth beyond reimbursement-only dynamics, but the excerpt does not provide a quantified timing-dependent effect. ⁴

Can they maintain the current growth rate if acceleration is delayed?

• Management’s framework suggests that without reimbursement expansion, the business is likely to remain around the ~8–9% growth plateau they referenced. ²
• Since Abbott indicated the reimbursement catalyst is hard to time precisely, the most likely scenario for “maintain the current rate” is that CGM growth continues near that plateau until reimbursement actions occur. ²

Practical interpretation for “rest of year” scenario planning (based on excerpted statements)

• If US type 2 falls in the fall: Abbott expects a definite acceleration in sales at that point. ³
• If DGK approval arrives sooner rather than later: Abbott suggests it is in late-stage discussions and would start market preparation immediately upon approval, which could support incremental growth/optionality. ⁴
• If either reimbursement or DGK timing shifts later than expected: Abbott’s stated historical pattern implies growth could revert toward the ~8–9% plateau range absent a major reimbursement expansion. ²

Overall conclusion: Based on the excerpts, the strongest explicit driver for accelerating Libre CGM growth in the remainder of the year is the US type 2 non-insulin coverage expansion, potentially in the fall, which Abbott says would “definitely accelerate” sales. ³ The US dual-key (DGK) sensor appears close to decision (described as “very, very advanced”), but Abbott does not forecast the exact timing. ⁴ Therefore, Abbott’s own framing indicates acceleration is very plausible if the reimbursement event occurs as anticipated, while delayed timing likely results in continued growth near the current ~8–9% plateau rather than a sustained step-up until the reimbursement expansion lands. ³²