Impact of Cocoa Price Fluctuations on 2026 Outlook and Pricing Strategy
Cocoa prices have recently dropped below GBP 5,000 per tonne, creating a potential upside for supply and demand in 2026.
Management expects a possible material upside if supply exceeds demand, with a low industry stock level indicating tight supply.
Cocoa butter prices have decreased significantly, with contracts now at roughly half of last year's ratios, offsetting recent cost increases.
Two scenarios for 2026: cocoa prices stay elevated, requiring additional pricing, or they decline, potentially leading to volume rebound and demand protection.
Industry Disruption Due to Global Trade and Tariffs
The company observed a surge in imports across key markets, contrary to expectations of import redirection due to tariffs.
Tariffs began to be collected in early May, but import surges persisted into the second quarter, driven by speculation and supply chain delays.
Management expects import levels to decline in the third quarter as the discourse around tariffs stabilizes, but potential new tariffs in Europe remain a concern.
Dafinchi
