CLW (2025 - Q2)

Release Date: Jul 29, 2025

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Stock Data provided by Financial Modeling Prep

Current Financial Performance

Clearwater Paper Q2 2025 Highlights

$392 million
Net Sales
+14%
$40 million
Adjusted EBITDA
$4 million
Net Income
$0.22
EPS

Key Financial Metrics

Adjusted EBITDA Margin

10.2%

SG&A % of Net Sales

6.7%

Operating Cash Flow Q2 2025

$30 million

CapEx YTD 2025

$56 million

Share Repurchases YTD

$18 million

Period Comparison Analysis

Net Sales

$392 million
Current
Previous:$378 million
3.7% QoQ

Net Sales

$392 million
Current
Previous:$346 million
13.3% YoY

Adjusted EBITDA

$40 million
Current
Previous:$30 million
33.3% QoQ

Adjusted EBITDA

$40 million
Current
Previous:$35 million
14.3% YoY

SG&A % of Net Sales

6.7%
Current
Previous:7.6%
11.8% YoY

Consolidated Net Income

$4 million
Current
Previous:-$6 million
33.3% QoQ

Consolidated Net Loss

-$26 million
Current

Earnings Performance & Analysis

Adjusted EBITDA Q2 2025 vs Guidance

Actual:$40 million
Estimate:$35 million to $45 million
MISS

Adjusted Loss Per Share Q2 2024

$0.51

Adjusted loss per share previous year

Diluted EPS Q2 2025

$0.22

Diluted EPS Q2 2024

-$1.55

Financial Health & Ratios

Key Financial Ratios

3.58x (Q2 2024)
Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA Leverage
$224 million (Q2 2024)
Liquidity
$80M to $90M
CapEx Guidance 2025
$45M to $50M
Major Maintenance Cost 2025
$1M to $2M
Tariff Impact 2025

Financial Guidance & Outlook

2025 Revenue Guidance

$1.5B to $1.6B

2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance

$10M to $20M Q3

Cost Savings Target 2025

$30M to $40M

Annual Cost Savings Run Rate

$40M to $50M

Surprises

Adjusted EBITDA Beat

$40 million

We delivered $40 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, which was right in the middle of our guidance range of $35 million to $45 million.

Net Sales Increase

$392 million

Net sales were $392 million, up 14% versus prior year, primarily driven by the Augusta acquisition and partly offset by lower market-driven pricing.

SG&A Expense Reduction

6.7% of net sales

SG&A expenses were down nearly 14% versus last year to 6.7% of net sales within our target range of 6% to 7%.

Industry Shipments Decline

-4.6%

-4.6%

Industry shipments of SBS slowed in Q2, decreasing by 4.6% versus the prior year and by 3.4% versus the first quarter based on AF&PA data.

Industry Utilization Rate Decline

83.1%

Industry utilization rates fell to 83.1% in the second quarter versus 84.7% in the first quarter based on the latest AF&PA data.

Impact Quotes

We believe that current demand softness is temporary and not a permanent or secular decline.

A 100,000 ton increase in sales and production volumes would result in more than $50 million of adjusted contribution margin with improved cost absorption.

A modest $50 per ton upward price movement would result in more than $60 million of additional adjusted EBITDA.

We maintain our view that these efforts are sustainable and can produce annualized savings in the range of $40 million to $50 million.

We are focused on expanding our product offering to better serve our converter customers.

We do not plan to use debt to fund these buybacks because maintaining a strong balance sheet continues to be a top priority.

We transformed Clearwater into a paperboard-focused company with 2 major strategic actions in 2024.

We expect strong margins and cash flows through the cycle and aim to strategically deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value.

Notable Topics Discussed

  • Clearwater Paper is exploring expansion into unbleached paperboard (CUK) and recycled paperboard (CRB) to serve underserved converter customers.
  • Near completion of market and engineering studies for CUK, with a decision expected by year-end.
  • Potential investment in CUK capability on existing SBS machines, estimated at around $50 million, to enable flexible production based on demand.
  • Considering acquisitions or conversions to broaden product offerings, including CRB, to capitalize on market opportunities and reduce channel conflict.
  • Industry utilization rates fell to 83.1% in Q2, partly due to new capacity ramp-up by competitors.
  • RISI projects a 350,000-ton reduction in U.S. SBS capacity in 2026, which could restore industry utilization to around 91%.
  • Trade investigations, tariffs, and antidumping actions could impact import viability, potentially reducing 700,000-800,000 tons of imports annually.
  • Industry views demand softness as temporary, with long-term prospects remaining positive, expecting utilization rates to recover to 90-95% in the medium term.
  • Completed a $45 million emissions control upgrade at Cypress Bend mill, with a $9 million outage cost, in line with estimates.
  • Lewiston mill outage expected to cost $23-$25 million in Q3, impacting production and cost absorption.
  • Lower production volumes due to outages and fixed cost absorption issues are expected to influence Q3 EBITDA guidance.
  • Cost reduction initiatives contributed to a 14% decrease in SG&A expenses and are projected to deliver $30-$40 million in annual savings.
  • Mixed demand signals in Q2: shipments up 5% sequentially, backlogs up 14%, but industry shipments down year-over-year.
  • Customer feedback indicates no serious demand issues, just short-term economic uncertainty.
  • Moderate downward revisions in industry forecasts, with some expecting mid-single-digit to below 1% growth for 2025.
  • Uncertainty around the impact of tariffs and FX on import levels, with some expectation of reduced imports due to trade actions.
  • A 100,000-ton increase in sales could generate over $50 million in contribution margin.
  • A $50 per ton price increase could add more than $60 million in EBITDA.
  • Management emphasizes the leverage in their system and the potential for margin recovery as industry conditions improve.
  • Company remains optimistic about the medium- to long-term prospects for paperboard packaging.
  • Targeting 13%-14% EBITDA margins across the cycle, with potential revenue of $1.8-$1.9 billion and over $100 million in free cash flow annually at industry recovery.
  • Repurchased $4 million of shares in Q2, totaling $18 million since November 2024 authorization.
  • Maintains a strong balance sheet, avoiding debt for buybacks, and prioritizing financial stability amid high planned maintenance costs.
  • Full-year CapEx guidance of $80-$90 million, with $56 million spent year-to-date.
  • Focus on operational execution, cost reduction, and defending market share amid industry challenges.
  • Execution of large outages like Lewiston is critical for future performance.
  • Monitoring capacity additions and market demand to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.
  • Received BPI compostable certification for mills in Lewiston and Cypress Bend.
  • Development of lightweight and compostable products expected to launch in 2026.
  • Strategic emphasis on sustainability as part of product innovation and market positioning.

Key Insights:

  • Capital expenditures for 2025 are forecasted at $80 million to $90 million, with $56 million incurred year-to-date.
  • For Q3 2025, adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $10 million to $20 million, impacted by a Lewiston major maintenance outage costing $23 million to $25 million and approximately 5% lower production volumes.
  • Full year 2025 revenue is expected between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion with stable and recovering demand but utilization rates remaining in the mid-80% range.
  • Full year tariff-related impact on direct and indirect spend is estimated at $1 million to $2 million.
  • Major maintenance costs across the three mill network are expected to total $45 million to $50 million in 2025.
  • The company expects to deliver $30 million to $40 million in fixed cost savings in 2025, resulting in a $40 million to $50 million annual run rate benefit.
  • The company targets 13% to 14% adjusted EBITDA margins across the cycle, assuming industry utilization rates recover to 90% to 95%, translating to approximately $250 million adjusted EBITDA and over $100 million free cash flow annually.
  • Completed a major maintenance outage at Cypress Bend mill costing approximately $9 million, including installation of a new emissions control device replacing equipment from the 1970s, part of a $45 million capital project.
  • Considering entry into CRB (recycled paperboard) likely through acquisition of existing capacity or conversion candidate.
  • Developing compostable and lightweight products, with BPI compostable certification received for folding carton and food service grades at Lewiston and Cypress Bend mills; lightweight product expected in market by 2026.
  • Focused on expanding product offerings to better serve independent converter customers, currently the third largest paperboard producer in North America with 14% market share.
  • Near completion of market and engineering studies for potential entry into CUK (unbleached paperboard) with a decision expected by year-end; investment expected around $50 million over 18 months to add CUK capability on an existing SBS machine.
  • On track to deliver $30 million to $40 million in fixed cost reductions in 2025 versus 2024.
  • Repurchased $18 million of shares since November 2024 authorization, focusing on opportunistic buybacks without using debt.
  • CEO Arsen Kitch emphasized strong Q2 performance driven by higher production volumes, increased shipments, and fixed cost reductions.
  • CEO Kitch reiterated the company’s transformation into a paperboard-focused business and commitment to expanding product portfolio and serving independent converters.
  • CFO Sherri Baker noted strong cost control with SG&A reductions and sustainable savings, reinforcing confidence in long-term adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow outlook.
  • Management highlighted mixed industry demand signals with slowing SBS shipments but increasing backlogs, reflecting economic uncertainty.
  • Management is optimistic about long-term industry prospects and targets mid-cycle utilization rates of 90% to 95% for margin recovery.
  • Management prioritizes maintaining a strong balance sheet and cautious capital allocation, especially around share repurchases and major maintenance spending.
  • The company believes the industry is in a down cycle due to oversupply and expects utilization rates to remain below historical norms until capacity reductions or trade actions occur.
  • Analyst Matthew McKellar asked about demand outlook and mixed signals from shipments and backlogs; management confirmed mixed signals but no serious demand issues, attributing softness to near-term economic uncertainty.
  • Capacity utilization expected to be around 85% for 2025, with outages in Q3 and Q4 impacting utilization and inventory build ahead of outages.
  • Clarification on Q3 guidance drivers including Lewiston outage costs, lower production volumes, and tariff impacts.
  • Discussion on the impact of tariffs and foreign exchange on imports, with management noting uncertainty but expecting some impact on import volumes.
  • Lewiston outage execution and startup are key swing factors for Q3 results, with demand expected to remain stable.
  • Management expects no significant incremental price or cost pressures beyond those disclosed.
  • Approximately 700,000 to 800,000 tons of bleached paperboard and finished goods are imported annually to the U.S., with potential trade actions possibly shifting demand to domestic supply.
  • Industry shipments of SBS decreased 4.6% year-over-year and 3.4% sequentially in Q2, while backlogs increased 5% year-over-year and 14.2% sequentially.
  • Industry utilization rates fell to 83.1% in Q2 from 84.7% in Q1, partly due to new competitor capacity starting up.
  • RISI projects a net SBS capacity decrease of approximately 350,000 tons in 2026, which could improve utilization rates to around 91%.
  • The company estimates a 100,000 ton increase in sales and production volumes could add over $50 million in adjusted contribution margin, and a $50 per ton price increase could add over $60 million in adjusted EBITDA.
  • The company is the third largest paperboard producer in North America, focusing on SBS which is about half of the total paperboard market.
  • Capital projects include a $45 million emissions control upgrade and ongoing investments to maintain asset base.
  • Management emphasizes safety and customer service as key priorities.
  • Share buybacks are viewed as opportunistic investments when shares are undervalued and free cash flow is sufficient, with no plans to use debt for buybacks.
  • The Augusta acquisition completed on May 1, 2024, contributed significantly to year-over-year sales growth but will no longer impact year-over-year comparisons after this quarter.
  • The company expects demand softness to be temporary and not a permanent secular decline.
  • The company is focused on operational execution, cost reduction, and defending market position to navigate challenging industry conditions.
Complete Transcript:
CLW:2025 - Q2
Operator:
Thank you for standing by. My name is Danica, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Clearwater Paper Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the call over to Sloan Bohlen, Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Sloan Bo
Sloan Bohlen:
Thank you, Danica, and thank you all for joining Clearwater Paper's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Arsen Kitch, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sherri Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Financial results for the second quarter of 2025 were released shortly after today's market close. You will find a presentation of supplemental information, including a slide providing the company's current outlook posted on the Investor Relations page of our website at clearwaterpaper.com. Additionally, we will be hosting -- or we will be providing certain non-GAAP financial information in this afternoon's discussion. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release and in the supplemental information provided on our website. Please note Slide 2 of our supplemental information covering forward-looking statements. Rather than reading this slide, we will incorporate it by reference into our prepared remarks. And with that, let me turn the call over to Arsen.
Arsen S. Kitch:
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. We delivered a strong second quarter that was in line with our expectations. This was driven by higher production volumes, increased shipments and continued benefits from our fixed cost reduction efforts. Let me share a few highlights before diving into industry conditions and our strategic initiatives. We delivered $40 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, which was right in the middle of our guidance range of $35 million to $45 million. Our net sales were $392 million, up 14% versus prior year, primarily driven by the Augusta acquisition and partly offset by lower market-driven pricing. Net sales were also up 4% versus the first quarter of this year, primarily driven by increased shipments in our food service business. Pricing remained relatively stable versus the first quarter, but was down approximately 3% versus prior year, reflecting broader market trends. We successfully completed the planned major maintenance outage at our Cypress Bend, Arkansas mill at a cost of approximately $9 million, which was in line with our estimates. As part of this outage, we completed the installation of a new emissions control device, replacing the original piece of equipment, which was installed in 1970s. This was a large capital project with a total cost of nearly $45 million. We continue to capture benefits from our fixed cost reduction efforts and are on track to deliver a $30 million to $40 million reduction this year versus 2024. SG&A expenses were down nearly 14% versus last year to 6.7% of net sales within our target range of 6% to 7%. This was driven by our cost reduction initiatives and the completion of the Augusta integration. And finally, we repurchased approximately $4 million of outstanding shares for a total of $15 million since the beginning of this year and $18 million since the new authorization in November of last year. Our team is doing a great job navigating challenging industry conditions by focusing on items within our control, namely driving operational execution, reducing cost and defending our market position. We believe that this discipline will translate to sustained improvements in performance and higher margins upon a recovery in our industry cycle. Next, I'd like to provide some commentary on broader industry conditions. At a macro level, industry shipments of SBS slowed in Q2, decreasing by 4.6% versus the prior year and by 3.4% versus the first quarter based on AF&PA data. While shipments decreased, backlogs increased by 5% versus prior year and 14.2% versus the first quarter. These mixed demand signals are reflective of broader economic uncertainty that is also impacting other industry segments. Now let's turn to supply. Industry utilization rates fell to 83.1% in the second quarter versus 84.7% in the first quarter based on the latest AF&PA data. This likely reflects the start-up of new capacity in the second quarter by a competitor. We expect SBS industry utilization rates to remain well below historical norms in the coming quarters as this new capacity ramps up. As a reminder, we believe that in a balanced supply and demand environment, utilization rates should be between 90% and 95%. While demand trends are mixed, we believe that we're in an industry down cycle, primarily driven by oversupply. It is difficult to predict when and how the industry will return to a mid-cycle utilization level. We believe that there are a few different ways that industry utilization rates can improve in the medium to long term. First, RISI is projecting that net SBS capacity in the U.S. will decrease by approximately 350,000 tons in 2026 versus 2025, which would drive utilization rates to around 91%. This would move the industry back into a more balanced mid-cycle position. Second, proposed tariffs, trade investigations and antidumping actions may also impact the viability of imports in our market. We estimate that approximately 700,000 to 800,000 tons of bleached paperboard and finished goods are imported to the U.S. annually. The shift to domestic supply by U.S. customers could improve industry operating rates. We also believe that there is some swing SBS capacity in North America that can move to other grades, which could further alleviate the oversupply position that our industry is facing. A combination of these 3 variables would help return the industry to more sustainable operating rates and lead to a margin recovery. Finally, we believe that current demand softness is temporary and not a permanent or secular decline. As a reminder, we're targeting 13% to 14% adjusted EBITDA margins across the cycle, which assumes that industry utilization rates recover to 90% to 95%. This would result in more than 1.3 million tons of paperboard volume, which we estimate would translate into approximately $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion of revenue, around $250 million of adjusted EBITDA and more than $100 million of free cash flow per year. Let me take a moment to illustrate the operating and price leverage that exists in our system. A 100,000 ton increase in sales and production volumes would result in more than $50 million of adjusted contribution margin with improved cost absorption. A modest $50 per ton upward price movement would result in more than $60 million of additional adjusted EBITDA. Let's shift gears and discuss our strategic initiatives and potential next steps. As we mentioned previously, we're focused on expanding our product offering to better serve our converter customers. Our goal is to continue to build on our position as a premier independent supplier of paperboard packaging products in North America. Today, we are the third largest producer of paperboard in North America, representing approximately 14% of a 10 million ton market. We are focused on SBS or bleached paperboard, which makes up approximately half of the total paperboard market. We are looking at opportunities to expand into CUK or unbleached paperboard and CRB or recycled paperboard. We believe that today, independent converters are underserved in these substrates by the large integrated players. We have an opening to participate and win share in these parts of the market due to our lack of channel conflict and our history of prioritizing independent converters. Let me get a bit more specific on the work that we're doing. We're nearing completion of market and engineering studies on the potential entry into CUK. I expect for us to make a decision regarding this potential investment by year-end. At this stage, we're focused on creating CUK capability on one of our existing SBS machines and not expanding our overall capacity. This would enable us to swing production between high-quality SBS and CUK on an existing machine based on market demand. This capability would also allow us to better serve our customers' needs, optimize our network and improve utilization across all our assets. While capital estimates have not been finalized, we expect this investment would be in the $50 million range and take around 18 months to complete. In addition to adding CUK capabilities to an existing asset, we're also considering additional options to broaden our product offering, including entry into CRB. This would likely require an acquisition, either of existing CRB capacity or of a good candidate for conversion. In addition to our focus on these additional substrates, we're continuing to make progress on developing compostable and lightweight products. We received a BPI compostable certification at our Lewiston and Cypress Bend mills that cover most of our folding carton and food service grades. In addition, we expect to have a lightweight offering in the market by 2026. We remain optimistic on the long-term prospects of paperboard packaging and our position as a premier supplier of these products to North American converters. With that, let me turn the call over to Sherri to review our results in more detail.
Sherri J. Baker:
Thank you, Arsen. As we mentioned, we had a strong quarter with consolidated net income from continuing operations of $4 million or $0.22 per diluted share. At the top line, we achieved net sales of $392 million for the quarter, which represents a 4% increase compared to the first quarter of this year and a 14% increase compared to the second quarter of last year. This was driven by contributions from our Augusta acquisition, growth with existing and new customers, partly offset by lower market-driven SBS pricing. As to Augusta, this will be the last quarter where year-over-year comparisons are impacted by the timing of our acquisition. As a reminder, we completed the Augusta acquisition on May 1, 2024. Moving to adjusted EBITDA. We delivered $40 million, which was at the midpoint of our guidance range of $35 million to $45 million. This was up substantially compared to a negative $8.6 million of adjusted EBITDA last year. The resulting adjusted EBITDA margin was 10.2% in the quarter. Improved cost performance and lower major maintenance expenses more than offset lower pricing and higher input costs. We are well on track to deliver the $30 million to $40 million of cost savings in 2025 as outlined earlier this year. As part of those efforts, we reduced our Q2 SG&A as a percent of net sales to 6.7% compared to 8.8% a year ago. We maintain our view that these efforts are sustainable and can produce annualized savings in the range of $40 million to $50 million. These efforts, along with the cost and price leverage that exists in our business, drive our conviction in our long-term adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow outlook. Shifting now to our balance sheet and capital allocation. Excluding our cash tax payment of $57 million related to 2024, in Q2, we drove approximately $30 million in operating cash flow, which was largely offset by capital spend as part of our projected $80 million to $90 million annual CapEx guidance. In the quarter, we continued to execute against our share buyback authorization of $100 million. We repurchased $4 million of shares in Q2 and have repurchased $18 million to date against the full authorization. We view share buybacks as a sound opportunistic investment at times when we believe our shares are undervalued, and we are generating sufficient free cash flows. We do not plan to use debt to fund these buybacks because maintaining a strong balance sheet continues to be a top priority. Given the nearly $40 million of planned major maintenance costs that we are anticipating in the second half of this year, continued investments into our assets, it is unlikely that we will generate sufficient free cash flows to fund material share repurchases for the balance of the year. I will close my remarks with an update on our view for 2025, including our forecast assumptions for the third quarter. We expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $10 million to $20 million based on the following assumptions: First, we expect flat paperboard shipments as compared to the second quarter of 2025; second, we expect that our Lewiston major maintenance outage will have a direct cost impact of $23 million to $25 million. In addition, due to the outage, we will see approximately 5% lower production volumes versus the first quarter, resulting in lower cost absorption. We expect to see similar benefits from our cost reduction spend that we saw in Q2. For the full year 2025, our key assumptions remain largely unchanged. We believe that our demand will be stable and recovering, but utilization rates will continue to be in the mid-80% range. We expect revenue to be in the $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion range. We are executing well against our fixed cost reduction plans and expect to deliver $30 million to $40 million of savings in 2025, resulting in a $40 million to $50 million annual run rate benefit. These cost savings will help to partly offset the expected price and cost inflation headwinds. We currently expect full year tariff-related impact across our direct and indirect spend of approximately $1 million to $2 million. Our full year expectation for capital expenditures continues to be $80 million to $90 million, of which we have incurred $56 million year- to-date. Recall, this year's CapEx program is approximately $10 million higher than normal due to carryover spend from large projects being completed this year. Lastly, as I detailed earlier, we expect $45 million to $50 million in direct major maintenance costs across our 3 mill network. Let me now turn the call back over to Arsen for closing remarks.
Arsen S. Kitch:
Thank you, Sherri. I'll summarize where we are today. We transformed Clearwater into a paperboard-focused company with 2 major strategic actions in 2024. We're now focused on strengthening our position as an independent supplier of paperboard packaging products to North American converters. We're looking at opportunities to expand our product portfolio, which may include new applications for our existing paperboard as well as new substrates. We have a well-invested asset base and a strong balance sheet that will help us persevere through this part of the industry cycle. We remain optimistic about the medium- to long-term prospects for our industry and our company. And as a result, we expect strong margins and cash flows through the cycle and aim to strategically deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value. Finally, I'd like to thank our people for their efforts to remain focused on operating safely and providing excellent service to our customers. I would also like to thank our customers for putting their trust in us and our shareholders for their continued interest. With that, we'll open it up to your questions.
Operator:
Matthew -- your first question comes from Matthew McKellar with RBC.
Matthew McKellar:
Just first here, it looks like you're expecting modest growth at an industry level in 2025, which I guess would imply a better back half for demand. Are you seeing that year-over-year improvement in demand in the market today? And is the uptick in unmade SBS orders a signal of that? And then I guess more broadly, I guess the demand outlook has softened a little bit. your expectations around net imports seems to soften a little bit as well. Could you just walk us through what's changed around your outlook at an industry level since your last update?
Arsen S. Kitch:
That's a great question, Matt. So I think we're getting mixed demand signals in Q2. So if you look at our data, our shipments were up by about 5% versus Q1 and our backlogs are stable. Industry shipments were down sequentially, and they were down year-over- year and they're down year-to-date, but backlogs are up 14% versus the first quarter. So a lot of mixed signals. What we are hearing from our customers that there really isn't a serious demand issue. There's just some near-term economic uncertainty that's really hard to decipher. We're comfortable with where we are. I know some of the industry forecasts have come down a bit this year from, call it, maybe mid-single digits to low single digits, maybe even below 1%. But it's hard for me to point to a specific driver of these forecast changes. From an import perspective, as we mentioned before, our industry imports about 500,000 or 600,000 tons of bleached paperboard and probably another a couple of hundred thousand tons of finished goods and exports over 800,000 tons. I think there is a scenario where these tariffs and trade investigations and antidumping duties could impact that -- those imports -- could impact those 700,000 or 800,000 tons of imports and could drive up domestic capacity utilization.
Matthew McKellar:
Are you at all surprised that imports haven't dropped a little further just given how much change in FX we've seen over the past while here, probably in particular?
Arsen S. Kitch:
So that's -- so tariffs and FX changes. So it's hard to tell what's happening in those markets. It represents, call it, 10% and we're just talking bleached paperboard imports. It's hard to know what the importers are thinking and what their plans are. But I do think between tariffs and an exchange rate and unfavorable exchange rate for them, I'd be surprised if there is no impact.
Matthew McKellar:
That's fair. I guess next for me, just thinking sequentially, you did $40 million in Q2 for EBITDA, maintenance costs at Lewiston, maybe $25 million, call it. That bridges you to the midpoint of the range. You, of course, would have had -- I think it was $9 million you called out maintenance cost at Cypress Bend in Q2. I guess, I would have thought you'd had a little bit more benefit from cost reduction efforts in the Q3 as well. So just thinking about that Q3 guide, are the other moving parts here just that lower production and fixed cost absorption issues you called out that aren't in the $23 million, $25 million of costs quoted for Lewiston? Or what are the other kind of incremental pressures here on either price or cost that is sort of embedded in your outlook?
Sherri J. Baker:
Yes, that's -- you've got it exactly right. So you've got roughly, call it, $15 million of sequential increase in outage expense. We did not call out the absorption impact, but we expect to see about 5% lower production volume. So that would be the other piece that you would have to factor in. And then the third piece is a modest amount of tariff impact. So those would be the 3 big pieces.
Matthew McKellar:
Okay. And aside from tariffs, really nothing else around kind of incremental pressure on price or other kind of costs that's worth calling out here?
Arsen S. Kitch:
Yes. From a price perspective, we saw a stable Q1 to Q2 price. We tend not to comment on future-looking prices.
Matthew McKellar:
Okay. How do you think about the most important swing factors that could either take you to the top or bottom end of that range? Is that mostly Lewiston startup? Or are there other factors that you'd be looking to there?
Arsen S. Kitch:
I think the Lewiston outage startup, this is a large outage that, frankly, last year cost us more than we expected. So there's a lot of focus on executing that outage well and starting up well. Demand, we're counting on demand being stable. There's -- I don't see any reason why that would not be the case. And of course, we're still watching the impact of the new capacity coming online from a competitor.
Matthew McKellar:
Great. And then last for me, you're guiding to flat shipments sequentially, but still capacity utilization of around 85% for 2025. I guess based on year-to-date results in that guide, is it fair for us to assume that shipments could be up a little bit sequentially in Q4?
Arsen S. Kitch:
Yes. So I think if you look at our capacity utilization, we have 2 major outages in Q3 and Q4. So I think that drives down capacity utilization. We built some inventory, as you can tell from our balance sheet in preparation for the Lewiston outage. So Q2 to Q3, we're expecting flat. Q4, sometimes there's some seasonality impact, maybe slightly lower shipments, but that's varied over the years.
Operator:
Thank you, everyone. That concludes our Q&A. I appreciate you all joining. You may now disconnect.

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