Waste Management Q1 2026 Pricing Impact on EBITDA Growth Analysis

GLPI’s outlook for 2026 and growth prospects despite regional gaming challenges

1) 2026 outlook: encouraged demand/earnings momentum in regional gaming

Management characterized early 2026 results in the regional footprint as “incredibly encouraging” after a “malaise over 2025” tied to the industry digesting prior strong comparisons and current rent coverage pressures. ¹ In support, they cited “very solid” earnings from PENN, Boyd, and Churchill across different regional markets. ¹ The implication for GLPI is that, while regional gaming has faced headwinds, the cash-flow environment underpinning rent coverage appears to be stabilizing/improving early in 2026. ¹

2) Rent coverage remains strong—key underwriting anchor for GLPI

GLPI emphasized that rent coverages are still in “incredibly solid place” and that they remain encouraged by early-2026 progress. ¹ They also stated that 2026 rent coverage remained strong, with “the vast majority of our leases covered at 1.8x or higher.” ² This matters because GLPI’s model depends on reliable lease cash flows from operating casinos; strong coverage suggests less near-term stress from operator performance, even if conditions are uneven regionally. ²

3) Clear multi-year growth visibility: AFFO growth + committed capital deployment

Management described GLPI’s starting point for 2026 as “enviable,” with a “clear and well-documented line of sight toward a very healthy multiyear…AFFO growth” driven by both acquisition and development pipelines. ² They further noted:

• AFFO and AFFO per share grew “in mid- to high single digits” in the first quarter of 2026. ²
• Future capital commitments are roughly $1.8 billion, with nearly all expected to deploy by year-end 2027. ²
• They reiterated that, despite regional challenges, 2026 is starting “very…very solid,” with continued strength in rent coverage. ²

4) 2026 guidance provides a quantitative baseline (AFFO growth range + development spend)

GLPI’s full-year 2026 AFFO guidance is $1.212B to $1.223B (or $4.08 to $4.12 per diluted share in OP units). ³ Management also specified that guidance does not include the impact of future transactions, but it does include:

• Additional development funding of ~$590M to ~$640M in 2026, funded evenly by quarter through the remainder of 2026, bringing total development spend to ~$750M to $800M for 2026. ³
• Acquisition of PENN’s Aurora facility for $225M, expected late in the second quarter. ³
• Settlement of $363M of forward equity expected on June 1st. ³
• A balance sheet point: leverage ratio at 5x at the low end of the target level. ³

Taken together, GLPI’s outlook for 2026 growth appears supported less by “operator optimism” alone and more by: (a) lease cash-flow quality (rent coverage), (b) contracted/underwritten escalations and completed/near-term developments, and (c) a quantified 2026 AFFO plan that includes development and a stated acquisition. ²³

5) Development pipeline: early operating indicators support the growth story

GLPI pointed to multiple development investments and early performance signals:

• Hollywood Joliet was described as having early returns that PENN is “very pleased” with. ⁴
• Cordish Development in Virginia opened January 22, and GLPI cited performance at “a little bit over $15 million a month” in each of the two months opened. ⁴
• Bally’s Baton Rouge opened in December 2025, with GLPI citing market expansion driven by new supply and incremental investment. ⁴

These examples support management’s claim that the pipeline is not theoretical; it is producing measurable revenue/cash rent ramp indicators in operating markets. ⁴

6) Growth prospects despite challenges: focus on transaction underwriting + capital access

Management framed a key resilience point: GLPI is not pressured to transact—“There is no transaction that we have to do”—and they emphasize “thoughtful transaction underwriting” and careful capital deployment while maintaining positioning for multiyear AFFO and dividend growth. ² This approach matters when regional gaming faces uncertainty, because it reduces the risk of overpaying or stretching underwriting assumptions. ²

They also discussed transaction pricing/capital-market conditions:

• They said the market is normalizing and that previously printed ~7.5% cap rates are not indicative of what GLPI expects going forward. ⁵
• They referenced normalization in the area of ~8% cap rates consistent with the Lincoln and some other more recent transactions. ⁵
• They also said credit markets remain turbulent for gaming operators, which can affect deal structure and capital costs. ⁵

In short, GLPI sees enough deal-level opportunity set (and potentially better risk-adjusted pricing) to support growth, even while operator financing conditions are choppy. ⁵

7) Regional gaming challenges: management sees limited structural acceleration from adjacent segments

Management addressed competitive/adjacent-market concerns (iGaming/predictive markets), stating:

• They do not expect proliferation of iGaming to “accelerate this session,” noting gaming legislation in multiple states did not look promising. ⁶
• They stated they were “not overly concerned” about predictive markets at the moment due to challenges and lack of near-term legislative momentum. ⁶

This matters indirectly for GLPI’s outlook because it suggests management does not see a rapid, broad-based substitution away from bricks-and-mortar gaming that would quickly impair rent performance. ⁶

8) International/non-gaming opportunities: pursued, but timing uncertain due to tax/legal constraints

On international growth prospects, management said they continue conversations but that they face tax/repatriation and legal/customs implications they must be comfortable with by jurisdiction. ⁷ They were not willing to say that an international deal “capacity” would happen anytime soon, implying near-term growth emphasis remains domestic. ⁷ For non-gaming opportunities, management said they’re still searching broadly (“kiss a lot of frogs…looking for a princess”), but the comment underscores selectivity rather than a confirmed ramp in non-gaming growth. ⁸

Bottom line

Despite regional gaming challenges, GLPI’s 2026 outlook is constructively positive because management reports:

• Early 2026 regional results are encouraging across major operators in its footprint. ¹
• Rent coverage remains strong, with most leases at ~1.8x or higher. ²
• Multiyear AFFO growth visibility is supported by acquisition and development pipelines plus a quantified 2026 AFFO guidance range. ²³
• Planned capital deployment (~$1.8B commitments through 2027) and specific 2026 development/acquisition inclusions help “buy” growth visibility even when the broader industry backdrop is difficult. ²³
• Adjacent competitive pressures (e.g., iGaming expansion) are not expected to accelerate quickly enough to materially disrupt the base case in the near term, per management’s view. ⁶

As for growth prospects beyond 2026, management indicated they can see growth through 2027 clearly, and 2028+ depends on transactions they identify over the next year or two. ⁹