Vistra Corp anticipates a significant adjusted EBITDA uplift of $700 million to $750 million in 2027 from its Cogentrix acquisition, expected to close in the second half of 2026. This transaction, combined with Meta PPAs, supports strong future financial growth and cash flow per share accretion.
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Please quantify the 2027 adjusted EBITDA uplift expected from Cogentrix and the month it begins contributing.
Vistra Corp.: Quantification of 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Uplift from Cogentrix and Contribution Timing
| Metric | Value / Timing | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Cogentrix acquisition capacity | ~5,500 MW | 12 |
| Purchase price per kW (net of tax benefits) | ~$730/kW | 1 |
| Expected 2027 EBITDA uplift (Cogentrix + Meta) | $700 million to $750 million (estimated addition) | 3 |
| Expected 2027 free cash flow/share (post transactions) | ~$16 per share (includes Meta & Cogentrix impacts, excluding tax benefits) | 367 |
| Cogentrix closing | Expected H2 2026 | 31 |
| Cogentrix EBITDA contribution start | Partial H2 2026, full in 2027 | 31 |
Vistra expects the Cogentrix acquisition to close in the second half of 2026, with the EBITDA uplift from these assets fully contributing to 2027 results. Combined with Meta PPA transactions, the increment to 2027 adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be in the range of $700 million to $750 million, a significant uplift that supports a projected adjusted free cash flow before growth per share of approximately $16 in 2027. This guidance will be officially updated upon completion of the Cogentrix transaction in 2026.
The financial benefits represent mid-single-digit per share accretion initially from Cogentrix, rising further in the ensuing years. Vistra’s strong market positioning and growing contracted revenue base support this positive outlook.
References:
3 Earnings Transcript Q4 2025: Guidance on 2027 opportunity and Meta/Cogentrix contribution
1 Discussion of Cogentrix transaction, purchase price, and financial accretion
6 Capital allocation and free cash flow per share framework including Cogentrix and Meta
7 Further details on free cash flow per share projection inclusive of transactions
2 Strategic acquisitions summary including Cogentrix details
45 Market demand and timing commentary on incremental load growth and contracting
This analysis objectively collates management’s disclosures to quantify and time the adjusted EBITDA expected from Cogentrix within the 2027 outlook framework.
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