Management highlights Canada’s 97% occupancy and independent living as a stabilizing factor for RevPOR, but notes Canada is not a forward predictor for the U.S. The U.S. upside is anchored in high-occupancy communities, with RevPOR growth around 6-7%.
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What did management say about Canada RevPOR vs U.S.; independent living?
Management said Canada has 97% occupancy and that the portfolio there has “good RevPOR growth,” citing rent restrictions in Quebec plus social barriers around rent in Ontario as part of the structural setup. 1 They also specifically tied this strength to Canada having an independent living product, stating that independent living RevPOR is “more stable in rent driven” because it avoids the “re-leasing spread drag” they can see in assisted living when higher-acuity residents leave and lower-acuity residents move in. 1
Importantly, when asked whether Canada could be a “lead” for how the U.S. RevPOR trend might perform, management said they do not view Canada as an indicator for the future in the U.S. 1 Instead, they pointed to the U.S. proof points already visible in high-occupancy communities.
Management contrasted Canada with what they’re targeting in the U.S. for the future, emphasizing U.S. high-occupancy examples—specifically mentioning “90% plus” and “100% occupied communities” where they said they’re demonstrating higher RevPOR growth across a “huge sample size.” 1
They further quantified the U.S. occupancy/RevPOR relationship by describing:
Management also reiterated that the “proof points” for stabilization are not just theoretical: they cited a U.S. context of ~10% of the portfolio operating at or near 100% occupancy, with ~20%+ NOI growth and RevPOR around ~7% (and noted 2/3 of those are in the U.S.). 3
Putting management’s commentary together:
In other words, management’s implicit framework is:
Management said Canada shows good RevPOR growth supported by 97% occupancy and the presence of independent living, which they believe makes RevPOR more stable and less subject to assisted-living re-leasing spread drag. 1 However, they explicitly stated they do not view Canada’s RevPOR as the indicator for the future in the U.S. 1 For U.S. RevPOR trajectory, they emphasized U.S. evidence in 90%+ to ~99%+ occupied communities, where they cited ~6% to ~7% RevPOR growth tied to occupancy-driven pricing power. 2
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Research questionHow is the aging baby boomer demographic expected to influence senior housing demand for Ventas in 2026?
Answer outline
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Research questionHow is the aging baby boomer demographic expected to influence senior housing demand for Ventas in 2026?
Answer outline
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Research questionAnd then maybe a separate follow-up. With regard to investments, obviously, I'd love your opinion on where we are in the development cycle. You talked about discount to replacement costs, rents are below where they need to be to develop. I think from a new development standpoint, you haven't been particularly active. Is that something as you look out over the next couple of years that you can see that gap closing with 5% RevPOR and 300 basis point pick up in margin where you want to be ahead of that curve. So I guess, maybe talk to me about where you think we are maybe in the cycle of development for Ventas in particular?
Answer outline
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Research questionHow is the aging baby boomer demographic expected to influence senior housing demand for Ventas in 2026?
Answer outline
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Research questionHow is the aging baby boomer demographic expected to influence senior housing demand for Ventas in 2026?
Answer outline
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