Sherwin-Williams' PSG segment expects back-half volume to remain consistent in 2026, with no material sequential deterioration and Q/Q phasing staying stable. The shift from earlier guidance is a higher volume base and pricing adjustments to balance inflation, not a deteriorating volume that must be offset by share gains. The firm continues pursuing share gains, particularly in residential repaint, amid a soft market backdrop.
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Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. Heidi, going back to your, you know, comments on the outlook and, you know, just given the steady increase in interest rates, recently, specific to the PSG segment, Are you embedding any sort of volume deterioration sequentially for the back half of this year, which will be offset by share gain initiatives on your end, you know, to sort of sum to that low single digit volume growth. Is that the right way to think about it? Thank you?
Based on management’s comments in the earnings transcript, Sherwin-Williams does not expect sequential volume deterioration in the back half of 2026 for the relevant PSG framing. Management indicated that the quarter-over-quarter (phasing) volume is expected to be consistent and that the main change versus prior expectations is the level of volume being higher (and pricing changing to balance inflation), not a weakening volume trend that must be “offset” by share gains. 1
When asked whether, given steady interest-rate increases, they are “embedding any sort of volume deterioration sequentially for the back half,” management responded that the quarter-over-quarter volume is expected to be consistent. 1 They also stated that year-over-year “half over half” phasing in their guidance is relatively consistent. 1
Management said that compared with their original January guidance, the assumptions were the same, but the level of volume is higher than expected—specifically moving from “down low single digit to up low single digit” for stores group volume. 1 This implies the back-half volume outlook is not being built on a “downturn then offset” framework; instead, it suggests execution and demand/volume levels are at least matching (or exceeding) initial assumptions. 1
Management clarified that what changes is the pricing as they try to balance inflation, rather than a clear volume deterioration pattern. 1 This matters for the question because it suggests the mechanism for getting to low single-digit volume growth is not “share gains offset weaker volume,” but rather a combination of volume stability plus pricing/cost management. 1
Management explicitly linked low single-digit outperformance to evidence of share gain (particularly in the context of rent being weak but improving sequentially). 2 However, the specific back-half question you asked is answered differently: management said they do not expect sequential volume deterioration and emphasized consistent Q/Q volume phasing. 1 So, while share gain is presented as a real driver of performance, management did not describe it as a compensating lever to overcome an expected volume decline from interest-rate pressure in the back half. 12
Management also discussed the residential repaint / residential repaint contractor environment more broadly, stating:
Even with residential backdrop pressure, these excerpts reinforce that management’s strategy is continuing to drive share, not that they are anticipating a back-half volume slide that needs to be “offset.” 34
The mental model you proposed—“interest rates cause sequential volume deterioration in the back half, which is then offset by share-gain initiatives to reach low single-digit volume growth”—is not the way management described the outlook. 1 Instead, management indicated:
If you’d like, I can also map these points to the guidance mechanics management used for stores group volume and pricing cadence (including the September price increase discussion), but the core answer to your question is that the back-half volume is guided as consistent, not deteriorating sequentially. 15
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