Pinnacle West Capital Corporation outlines a detailed MW-by-MW breakdown of its 4.5 GW committed load by customer type and expected in-service years, highlighting major contributions from TSMC and data centers, with forecasts extending through 2040.
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Please provide a MW-by-MW breakdown of the 4.5 GW committed load by customer and expected in-service year.
Analysis of the 4.5 GW Committed Load by Customer and Expected In-Service Year for Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW)
The company disclosed a 4.5 gigawatts (GW) of committed high load factor demand relative to the 2025 system peak. This committed load primarily consists of:
TSMC and Semiconductor Sector: A significant, though not quantified exactly in MW, portion of the committed 4.5 GW load is allocated to TSMC. The company currently excludes any further TSMC expansions beyond the committed footprint in this figure, meaning future expansions are incremental to the 4.5 GW123.
Other High Load Factor Commercial and Industrial Customers: The remainder of the 4.5 GW committed load comprises other data center customers with high load factors. These customers have committed over the past few years and are ramping according to anticipated builds12.
The committed load is anticipated to materialize over a 15-year period, as reflected in the forthcoming Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update expected mid-2026. The IRP will incorporate both the committed 4.5 GW load forecast and organic load growth14.
Specific milestones mentioned include the TSMC's second fab reaching full production in 2027, with subsequent fabs under construction or early development stages, and potential expansions beyond that timeline which are not included in the committed 4.5 GW523.
The company’s capital spending plans extend through 2028, and some of the generation and transmission infrastructure investments (such as the Red Hawk gas expansion scheduled for 2028 completion) are aligned with the ramp-up to serve this committed demand56.
There is an additional uncommitted queue amounting to about 20 GW of potential load, which is in negotiation or consideration stages and not currently contracted. Load from this queue, if contracted, would be incremental and above the 4.5 GW committed figure and would drive incremental capital investments beyond existing plans172.
The company is actively working on converting uncommitted load into committed agreements via a subscription model launched late last year, with negotiations ongoing and expected filings with the commission within 202687.
| Customer Category | Approximate MW Commitment | Expected In-Service Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC Chip Manufacturing | Significant subset of 4.5 GW | 2025-2035 (Second fab by 2027, others later) | Current committed fabs included; expansions beyond committed footprint excluded |
| Other High Load Factor C&I (Data Centers) | Majority remainder of 4.5 GW | Staggered over 15-year period | Customers contracted and ramping; high load factor |
| Uncommitted Load | ~20 GW (uncontracted queue) | N/A (subject to future contracts) | Not included in 4.5 GW; will be incremental if contracted |
The IRP update expected mid-2026 will reflect a detailed forecast of how the 4.5 GW committed load and organic growth will materialize over the next 15 years, including infrastructure and resource plans to meet that demand14.
Capital and rate base plans currently extend to 2028, capturing early phases of committed load build-out, but significant long-term infrastructure beyond that is under ongoing evaluation542.
Load growth related to the committed 4.5 GW is highly reliable and backed by contracts or firm commitments, unlike the larger uncommitted pipeline which remains probabilistic12.
The 4.5 GW committed load for Pinnacle West Capital is primarily composed of high load factor commercial and industrial customers, largely data centers including TSMC’s chip manufacturing operations, with an expected material ramp-up from 2025 through the next 15 years. The company is actively finalizing further contracts from a larger uncommitted queue, with these potential additions excluded from the committed 4.5 GW figure and expected to drive incremental capital investment beyond current plans. The detailed timing and MW-by-MW breakdown will be more specifically addressed in the mid-2026 IRP filing, which will extend the capital planning horizon and incorporate both committed loads and organic growth projections.
1: earnings_transcript 2025-Q4, paragraphs discussing 4.5 GW committed load and IRP
8: discussion on handling of uncommitted queue and subscription model
5: operational update including TSMC fab timeline and infrastructure projects like Red Hawk (2028)
4: IRP timing and capital plan horizon considerations
72: details on transition from uncommitted to committed categories and negotiations
63: remarks on timing and customer discussions for expansions
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