Lindblad Expeditions projects 2026 booked revenues between $800M and $850M, driven by segment and geographic growth, with cautious assumptions on cancellations and attrition. The company's guidance reflects capacity expansion, strong booking momentum, and occupancy improvements.
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Can you break down booked 2026 revenue by segment and geography and quantify cancellation/attrition assumptions?
Total Company Tour Revenue Guidance:
Lindblad expects total company tour revenue for 2026 to be $800 million to $850 million, up from $771 million in 2025, signaling growth of approximately 4% to 10% year-over-year 12.
Segment Contribution to Revenue:
Although exact 2026 revenue by segment is not explicitly broken down, historical context and growth trends provide insight:
Assuming similar proportional contributions and continued momentum, the expedition and land segments are likely to contribute roughly in this ratio to 2026 revenue.
Geographic Considerations:
Occupancy:
The company ended 2025 at approximately 88% occupancy, with confidence expressed to reach historical levels of ~90% occupancy in 2026 6. Occupancy increases are a key driver of revenue growth embedded in guidance.
Net Yield per Available Guest Night:
Expected to increase by approximately 4% to 5% in 2026. Early 2026 yield growth is expected to be more modest due to capacity increases weighted outside the most profitable geographies, with stronger yields anticipated in the second half 16.
| Metric | Value/Guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Total 2026 Revenue | $800M - $850M | 12 |
| 2025 Revenue (for context) | $771M | 82 |
| Capacity Growth (Available Guest Nights) | +4.5% to +5%, weighted to 1H 2026 | 14 |
| Occupancy (Year-End 2025) | 88% | 6 |
| Occupancy Target for 2026 | ~90% (historical levels) | 6 |
| Net Yield Improvement (per guest night) | +4% to +5% | 16 |
| Segment Revenue Split (2025 reference) | Expedition ~64%, Land Experiences ~36% | 2 |
| Geography-wise capacity focus | Core geographies: Galapagos, Antarctica, Alaska; Growth weighted initially outside cores | 134 |
| Cancellation/Attrition assumptions | Not explicitly disclosed; risks noted but no quantification | 6 |
Lindblad Expeditions' 2026 booked revenue guidance of $800 million to $850 million reflects expected capacity growth of 4.5%-5%, primarily through optimization of fleet deployment, new Galapagos vessels, and expanded charters. The growth is spread between the expedition and land-based experience segments in a similar proportion to 2025, with core geographies like Galapagos, Antarctica, and Alaska continuing to drive strong pricing power and occupancy improvements.
Yield is expected to grow 4%-5% with occupancy near historical levels (~90%) supporting revenue gains. The company has strong booking momentum with 2026 bookings already exceeding 2025 full-year revenue and 2027 bookings pacing ahead.
Management did not explicitly quantify cancellation or attrition assumptions in the guidance but noted risks from geopolitical or other disruptions. Operational improvements, including deployment and maintenance scheduling, help minimize non-revenue days and indirectly mitigate attrition impact.
Overall, Lindblad's 2026 guidance is underpinned by disciplined tactical deployment, pricing integrity, and capacity expansion, with conservative assumptions for macro risks shaping the revenue outlook.
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