Lam Research Q4 2026 HBM Drives Near-Term DRAM Momentum, DRAM Expands Beyond HBM

What management said about DRAM/HBM market opportunity (Lam, LRCX)

1) Management’s framing: HBM is the clearest near-term “outgrowth,” but DRAM is still getting pulled forward by advanced device requirements

• Management explicitly tied much of Lam’s DRAM-related momentum (including share gains) to HBM, describing that Lam’s “strong outgrowth” over the last couple of years has been “mainly driven by HBM,” specifically “TSV drilling and electroplating tools.” ¹
• At the same time, they argued DRAM opportunity is not limited to HBM; they said Lam is winning in conventional DRAM as DRAM device performance pushes into future nodes that start to “look a lot like leading-edge foundry/logic,” with more demanding patterning and materials. ²
• They also stated that, if you “layer on top of that” HBM, “it’s even better for us,” reinforcing that HBM stacks add incremental opportunity versus baseline DRAM. ²

2) Why DRAM is attractive: DRAM node evolution increases tool-critical patterning/etch requirements

Management cited several technical directions that expand Lam’s relevance as DRAM scales:

• DRAM performance improvements are leading to incorporation of higher-performance processes such as low-k and more EUV layers, which makes Lam’s patterning etch tools “that much more critical.” ²
• For “very high-performance DRAM,” they said customers begin to worry about diffusion barrier performance and etch stop layer performance, areas where Lam claims “very strong leadership” (they compare this to leadership in advanced leading-edge foundry/logic). ²

They connected this to a broader convergence theme:

• As DRAM performance is pushed, they expect performance requirements to converge toward leading-edge logic, and they describe this convergence as a driver of Lam’s strength across the three device classes they track. ²

3) The HBM opportunity: management emphasized TSV and advanced packaging complexity rather than giving a DRAM-vs-HBM sizing

• In answering questions about how much of the DRAM/HBM market opportunity is capturable, management reiterated HBM’s importance to Lam’s position via TSV formation and other elements of the HBM process. ²
• When asked about opportunity sizing in terms of “every 100 wafers” for HBM with TSVs and HBM generations, management declined to provide quantified sizing: they indicated they “haven’t put specific numbers on it” and “aren’t prepared to do it right now.” ³
• They also acknowledged they can’t give detailed next-year packaging/DRAM numbers immediately, stating they are “not going to put numbers around next year yet too soon,” again implying limited disclosure on dollar opportunity sizing in this area. ⁴

Bottom line from their comments: management sees HBM as a strong driver for Lam’s DRAM-related growth (especially TSV drilling/electroplating and process steps), but they did not provide a precise market opportunity number for HBM in the excerpts. ¹²³

4) How management expects DRAM vs the broader memory WFE mix to evolve (directionally)

Management offered a directional view on growth composition:

• They said that next year’s growth drivers are “largely the same” as this year, “led by growth in DRAM WFE followed by leading-edge foundry/logic followed by NAND.” ⁴
• They also characterized 2027 as a “great setup” for both the industry and Lam, where next year DRAM is the fastest grower (followed by foundry/logic, then NAND). ⁵

This matters because it positions DRAM (not HBM alone) as the leading component of their expected equipment opportunity—while HBM remains an important accelerator within DRAM/advanced packaging complexity. ⁴⁵

5) Their “share opportunity” narrative for DRAM conventional (non-HBM) and why it should translate into equipment demand

When asked specifically about DRAM share opportunity in conventional DDRAM as nodes progress (including 1-alpha, 1-gamma and “new nodes like 1c and 1-gamma”), management linked demand to where industry capacity constraints are likely to be. ¹
Their response emphasized winning through:

• DRAM conventional front-end devices adopting more complex materials and patterning needs (low-k, more EUV) that elevate the importance of Lam’s etch/patterning tools. ²
• Lam’s leadership in diffusion barrier and etch stop layers as DRAM pushes performance. ²
• Additional technical adoption examples: DRAM customers adopting Lam’s VECTOR hard mask deposition for low-k film patterning (co-optimized for transistor performance and “over 20% cost savings” vs traditional approaches) and adopting VECTOR diffusion barrier systems with modular architecture designed to reduce shorting and capacitance (“approximately 5% versus competing technologies”). ⁶

These points function as management’s rationale for why conventional DRAM upgrades (not just HBM) can produce share gain and equipment intensity. ²⁶

6) What they said about “stack gets taller” / capital intensity—without quantifying

• In discussing HBM, a question noted that “capital intensity starts to pick up significantly,” and Lam’s management responded that as the stack gets taller, “process times take longer” and “you need more equipment,” with Lam enabling “a lot of that with… TSV.” ³
• However, they explicitly said they would not provide specific numeric quantification in that moment. ³

Conclusion

• HBM: Management portrayed HBM as a major contributor to Lam’s recent DRAM-related momentum and share gains, anchored in Lam’s TSV formation leadership and HBM process participation. ¹² They also acknowledged that taller HBM stacks increase equipment demand (longer process times and more equipment), with Lam enabled through TSV work, but they did not provide numeric “opportunity sizing.” ³
• Conventional DRAM (non-HBM): Management argued the DRAM opportunity extends beyond HBM as DRAM node evolution (low-k, more EUV layers, diffusion barriers, etch stop performance) makes Lam’s patterning etch and materials-related capabilities increasingly critical—and they supported this with claims of winning conventional DRAM and examples of specific platforms being adopted by DRAM customers. ²⁶
• Near-term growth direction: They indicated DRAM WFE is the leading growth driver for next year, and DRAM is the fastest grower in 2027 in their framework (with foundry/logic second and NAND third). ⁴⁵