Kraft Heinz confirms a consumption cadence where Q2 was roughly 2% lower than the prior year and Q3 is expected to improve toward about a 1% decline, with July showing around minus 1%. Management signals that Q4 will continue the sequential improvement and aims to exit the year with the best consumption rates, signaling improving momentum into 2027 despite no explicit Q4 figure in the guidance.
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Can you confirm the consumption cadence, with Q2 down about 2% and Q3 guidance implying about a 1% decline, and what that implies for the year-end exit rate?
Yes—management essentially confirmed the cadence you described.
Conclusion on your first premise: The excerpts support that Q2 consumption was roughly in the ~2% down area (management gave ~2.5% as the more precise directional figure), and Q3 was expected to improve to roughly ~1% down—with July already around minus 1%, consistent with the cadence you described. 12
Management did not pin down a specific numerical consumption percentage for Q4, but they gave the direction and sequencing needed to infer the qualitative “exit rate” implication:
So, for the year-end exit rate: based on the confirmed cadence (Q2 ~down 2% to ~2.5%, Q3 ~down ~1%, then sequentially improving in Q4), management’s commentary implies the Q4 exit consumption decline should be better than Q3’s roughly ~1% down level, and they characterize Q4 as the best consumption-rate quarter of the year. 23
Management added that reported guidance implied “worse” second-half performance at the midpoint, but they explained that was affected by non-underlying items and phasing:
This doesn’t change the cadence answer directly, but it reinforces that the company wants the market to look through phasing/noise to understand the underlying consumption trend—and their stated “cadence” expectation remains: improvement in Q3 and further sequential improvement in Q4. 24
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