Kosmos Energy projects a net production uplift of approximately 30,000 barrels per day from the next five Jubilee wells in 2026 after accounting for cannibalization effects. This production increase is a key component of their strategy to boost Jubilee field output toward 80,000 bpd.
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Please quantify expected net production uplift (bpd) from each of the next five Jubilee wells after cannibalization assumptions.
Analysis of Expected Net Production Uplift from the Next Five Jubilee Wells After Cannibalization
Kosmos Energy Ltd. has provided detailed guidance and commentary around the production uplift expected from the next five Jubilee wells that are planned to come online during 2026. To quantify the net production uplift (in barrels per day) after accounting for cannibalization (back-out volumes from existing wells), the following key points and data from the transcripts are critical:
The typical gross production from a new Jubilee well is about 10,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), a figure consistent over time and confirmed by management as a baseline for a "typical" well in this program 12.
The J-74 well, recently brought online in January 2026, represents an above-average performance, producing around 13,000 bpd gross 34. The next well, J-75, expected online by end of Q1 2026, is expected to perform similarly strongly, with high reservoir pay and a three-zone completion comparable to J-72 and J-74 2.
There are five wells coming online over 2026, of which four are producer wells and one is a water injector well which supports production but does not itself add direct oil output 4.
Cannibalization refers to reduced production on existing wells due to pressure support loss or infrastructure constraints as new wells come online, meaning net uplift is less than gross new well production.
Kosmos management provided a rule-of-thumb for net uplift after cannibalization: for a 10,000 bpd new well, net incremental production could be around 7,500 bpd on average, assuming about 2,500 bpd is cannibalized (backed out) from existing wells 1.
The J-74 well was an exception, placed on a new riser that relieved pressure and so had essentially zero back-out, meaning its full 13,000 bpd gross added nearly all as net new production 1.
Cannibalization differs based on well location, gas-oil ratio (GOR), reservoir pressure, and riser infrastructure, so actual net uplift varies well-by-well and is integrated into their forecasting process 1.
| Well Type | Wells | Gross Production (bpd) per Well | Estimated Cannibalization (bpd) | Net Production (bpd) per Well | Total Net Production (bpd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Wells | 4 | ~10,000 (typical average)* | ~2,500 | ~7,500 | 30,000 |
| Water Injector | 1 | 0 (no direct oil production) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Net Uplift Expected | ~30,000 bpd |
* The recent wells like J-74 and potentially J-75 have exceeded 10,000 bpd gross, but conservatively using 10,000 bpd for modeling is prudent given variability.
Jubilee’s current production (early 2026) is over 70,000 bpd gross post-J-74 coming online 534.
Jubilee’s field decline is assumed to be stable around 20% per annum, but has been arrested by recent drilling and water injection efforts 5.
The overall Jubilee production forecast, including the effect of these five wells, is in the range of 70,000-80,000 bpd gross, targeting the upper end as performance is strong 5.
Thus, the incremental production from these five wells, net of cannibalization, likely contributes around a 14-20% uplift over the 70,000 bpd baseline, consistent with ~30,000 bpd net from the producers but partly offset by field decline and other dynamics.
Typical gross production per new Jubilee well: ~10,000 bpd
Average cannibalization per well: ~2,500 bpd
Net production per new producer well: ~7,500 bpd
Number of new producer wells in next five wells: 4
Total net production uplift from the next five wells: approximately 30,000 barrels per day after cannibalization.
The actual uplift may vary per well, with occasional wells (like J-74) having near zero cannibalization and higher production.
The water injector well supports these producers but does not add direct oil volumes.
The net uplift is incorporated within Kosmos’s forecast of Jubilee crude production rising back towards 80,000 bpd gross in 2026.
The expected net production uplift from the next five Jubilee wells, accounting for cannibalization effects and current field decline assumptions, is approximately 30,000 barrels of oil per day. This assumes four producer wells averaging 10,000 bpd gross each with roughly 25% cannibalization (back-out) on average from existing wells, and one water injector well that supports production but does not itself produce oil. This net production gain substantially supports Kosmos Energy’s guidance of steady production growth and targets a meaningful rebound in Jubilee output during 2026.
References:
5 Kosmos Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript, CEO remarks on Jubilee production forecast and well program.
1 Q&A session with Andrew G. Inglis discussing cannibalization rule-of-thumb and J-74 well specifics.
342 Detailed well performance data on J-74, J-75, upcoming wells, and field development plans.
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