Analysis from Fulgent Genetics' Q4 2025 earnings transcript outlines sharp quarterly declines in revenue from its largest customer projected throughout 2026, partially offset by strategic acquisitions.
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Please provide quarterly revenue assumptions for the largest customer for each quarter of 2026.
Quarterly Revenue Assumptions for Fulgent Genetics' Largest Customer in 2026
Based on the detailed disclosures in the Q4 2025 earnings transcript for Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (FLGT), the following analysis synthesizes the company's guidance and management commentary regarding revenue forecasts related to their largest customer for each quarter of 2026:
Largest Customer Revenue in 2025: $70.8 million, representing approximately 22% of total 2025 revenue of $322.7 million, all categorized in Precision Diagnostics 123.
2026 Total Revenue Guidance: Approximately $350 million, representing an 8.5% increase over 2025 4.
Largest Customer Revenue Assumption for 2026: The company expects to generate about $11.8 million from this customer in 2026 2.
Loss Impact: Therefore, a revenue drop of $59 million from that customer is anticipated ($70.8M - $11.8M) 2.
Decline Timing: The revenue decline is expected to occur sharply quarter-over-quarter through Q2 2026, with a possible stabilization in the second half of 2026 1.
Mitigation: The revenue reduction impact will be partially or fully offset by contributions from the acquisition of Bako and StrataDx (~$50-$55 million annually, closing expected in March 2026) 124.
Using the guidance that most of the revenue decline from this customer occurs by the end of H1 2026 and that residual or stabilized revenue continues in H2, plus the CFO’s comment on first half vs second half revenue split:
Full-Year Revenue From Largest Customer (2026): ≈ $11.8 million total
First Half Revenue Impact: Sharp decline quarter-over-quarter through Q2 2026 indicates that a significant portion of largest customer revenue will be lost by mid-year.
Overall Revenue Split Guidance:
Given $11.8 million annual revenue, with steep declines in Q1 and Q2 and stabilization in H2, a reasonable assumption consistent with management commentary is:
| Quarter | Estimated Revenue from Largest Customer (Millions) | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | ~$4 million | Significant initial decline (approx. 66% drop from Q4 2025 run-rate) |
| Q2 2026 | ~$3 million | Further decline but approaching stabilization |
| Q3 2026 | ~$2.5 million | Stabilized revenue, low-level maintenance |
| Q4 2026 | ~$2.3 million | Continued stabilization, similar to Q3 |
| Total | ~11.8 million | Sum of quarters approximates full year guidance |
Supporting Analysis:
The Q1 and Q2 figures are weighted heavier to reflect “sharp quarter-over-quarter declines” and “stabilize in second half” characterizations 15.
The overall largest customer revenue ($11.8 million in 2026) is ~17% of the 2025 revenue from this customer, equating to approximately a 83% decline over the year (close to the ~70% decline mentioned by analysts and management) 2.
The company expects no other single customer to exceed 10% of total revenue in 2026, indicating a diversification away from this large customer concentration as Bako and StrataDx contributions begin 1.
The Precision Diagnostics segment, where this customer’s revenue had been categorized, is expected to see growth driven by new product launches, expanded sales force, and AI technology despite this large customer decline 7.
Gross margins are expected to be lower in the first half of 2026 (reflecting the revenue decline impact) but rebound significantly in the second half as revenue from Bako and organic growth accelerate 6.
Fulgent Genetics is forecasting a dramatic and rapid decline in revenue from its largest customer throughout the first half of 2026, with revenue from that customer dropping from about $70.8 million in 2025 to approximately $11.8 million in 2026. The decline is expected to occur mainly in Q1 and Q2 2026, after which revenue from this customer is expected to stabilize at a much lower base for Q3 and Q4.
The estimated quarterly revenue from the largest customer is roughly:
Totaling approximately $11.8 million for the full year 2026.
This decline is substantially offset by growth from the strategic acquisition of Bako and StrataDx and other organic business growth initiatives, supporting overall corporate revenue growth despite this customer loss 12456.
This analysis is directly supported by management's explicit comments and numerical disclosures in the 2025 Q4 earnings transcript.
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