Corteva Expects Brazil Pricing Pressure Not the New Normal in 2026

Outlook for Brazil pricing pressure: “new normal” or moderation next year?

What management is saying about Brazil pricing pressure

• On the specific “high-single-digit pricing pressure” question, management pushed back on the idea that this is the new normal for Brazil, stating they do not think the high-single-digit pricing pressure is the new normal in Brazil. ¹
• At the same time, management continues to describe competitive/price pressure in Brazil and explicitly does not expect “price recovery in Brazil in 2026.” ²
• The most direct framing is therefore: expect continued competitive pressure in 2026 (no outright recovery), but not a persistent, structurally high-single-digit regime as the baseline going forward. ²¹

Why pricing may remain under pressure next year (even if it moderates)

From the excerpts, the drivers of pricing pressure appear to be more about market structure and local farmer economics than about a short-lived supply disruption:

1. Brazil is described as well supplied but growing

   • Management characterizes Brazil as well supplied while also a market that is growing (i.e., demand is rising, but supply keeps competitive pricing pressure alive). ¹
   • In the crop-protection market commentary, they reiterate Brazil is well supplied and that they see more competitive pressure in Brazil for various reasons. ³

2. Farm economics are still stressed (credit and input costs)

   • Management notes credit is tight for Brazilian farmers and they mention stress from fuel and fertilizer prices impacting margins, which affects farmers’ purchasing timing/decisions and can sustain discounting. ⁴
   • They also state that growers are making decisions closer to planting time, partly due to these pressures (including tight credit). ⁴

3. Channel/product mix still leaves room for price erosion, even if demand is “healthy”

   • They describe demand as strong and the channel as healthy, but they also state Brazil is not a market with expected price recovery in 2026. ²
   • They additionally call out that they are moving pricing for the second half (from low-single-digit down to mid-single digits down) and that this pricing action is driven by what they are seeing in Brazil. ⁵

Countervailing forces that could limit the severity of pricing pressure

Even with continued pressure, management points to factors that can prevent a worse pricing spiral and support moderation:

1. Strong volume fundamentals and growing demand/acres

   • Management cites growing demand for crop protection, growing acres, and increasing disease and pest pressure—all of which strengthen the underlying need for crop protection and tend to help defend volumes and share (even when prices soften). ¹

2. New products and pipeline support (pricing power vs. generic pressure)

   • Management highlights an active pipeline (e.g., 7 new actives in the next decade, with Aviso next) and says these new products will have pricing premiums based on what they see in the market. ²⁶
   • They also emphasize a strategy of maintaining margins and share while lowering prices when molecules come off patent (i.e., competitive dynamics exist, but execution and portfolio strategy are meant to contain margin damage). ¹

3. Portfolio-specific reality: “no price recovery” doesn’t mean “no change at all”

   • For 2026, the company says pricing is anticipated to decline in the low to mid single digits (as an outlook for the second half, framed around volumes growing faster). ⁷
   • This outlook is consistent with the idea that pricing pressure may moderate from “high-single-digit” severity even if it does not reverse into recovery. ⁷²

Direct answer to the question

• Persist as the new normal?
  Management indicates they do not believe the high-single-digit pricing pressure is the new normal in Brazil. ¹
• Will pricing pressure moderate next year as farm economics improve?
  Based on the excerpts, management’s stance is closer to: pricing recovery is not expected in 2026, even though the company expects competitive dynamics to remain manageable and that pricing decline should be low-to-mid single digits in the relevant outlook window. ²⁷
  The excerpts do not provide evidence that they expect farm economics to “improve enough” to drive price recovery; instead, they highlight ongoing farmer stress (tight credit, higher input/fuel costs) that can keep pricing pressure in place. ⁴

Bottom line (how to reconcile both messages)

• The company is effectively describing a range-bound, competitive pricing environment in Brazil: continued pressure with no recovery in 2026, but not a permanent “high-single-digit” ceiling as the baseline. ²¹
• The expectation of low-to-mid single-digit pricing decline alongside high-single-digit volume growth led by new products supports the interpretation that the severity may moderate, while recovery is not the base case. ⁷⁵