Duke Energy Q1 2026 Earnings and Growth Projections Overview

Factors that contributed to AMG’s record earnings growth in Q1 2026

AMG reported record Q1 2026 results, with adjusted EBITDA of ~$317 million and economic earnings per share (EPS) of $8.23, representing 39% and 58% year-over-year growth, respectively. ¹ The management discussion attributes the earnings growth primarily to a combination of (1) strong client cash flows into alternatives, (2) positive investment performance that increased fee-related results and performance-fee earnings, (3) margin expansion at some major affiliates (supporting EBITDA), and (4) capital returns via share repurchases that boosted economic EPS. ²

1) Record and rising demand driving strong net client cash flows (organic growth engine)

AMG emphasized that demand for liquid alternative strategies and strength in private markets fundraising produced record net client cash flows of more than $22 billion in the quarter, taking net flows to $52 billion over the last 12 months, and an organic growth rate of 7% over that period. ¹

They also quantified the alternative flow momentum as a key driver:

• Alternatives flows in Q1: $29 billion, described as a record for AMG. ³
• Alternatives flows over the past year: $90 billion. ³

Management linked these flows to four “balanced” growth drivers—infrastructure, secondary solutions, absolute return strategies, and tax-aware strategies—and stated that none accounted for a majority, indicating diversified demand rather than a single-product tailwind. ³⁴

2) Specific strength in liquid alternatives: absolute return and tax-aware long/short

In Q1, AMG reported $25 billion of net inflows into liquid alternatives, described as another record quarter, with many affiliates (including AQR, Capula, Garda, Systematica, and Winton) contributing. ⁵ Flows were described as broad-based across both strategy type and investor channel:

• $15 billion from wealth clients into long/short tax-aware strategies ⁵
• $6 billion from institutional clients into absolute return strategies ⁵
• $4 billion of inflows into retail products across both beta-sensitive and absolute return strategies ⁵

Management specifically attributed the uptick in flows to greater client attraction to absolute return strategies amid more uncertain macro outlook, and highlighted tax-aware long/short demand within liquid alternatives (about $69 billion of AUM in liquid alternatives; roughly 8% of AMG’s business). ⁴

3) Private markets fundraising strength (infrastructure and secondary themes)

AMG stated that private markets fundraising remained strong, including private market affiliates raising $4 billion in the quarter, with activity primarily driven by Pantheon and secondary strategies, and infrastructure fundraises at Aura, EIG, and Qualitas Energy. ⁶ They also characterized fundraising as structurally diversified across affiliates and vintages rather than dependent on a single fundraise. ⁶

4) Earnings benefited from fee-related growth: organic growth + investment performance + margin expansion

AMG’s earnings growth is not described as purely flow-driven; management also pointed to specific financial mechanics behind EBITDA and fee-related earnings.

• Adjusted EBITDA growth: +39% year-over-year to about $317 million. ¹²
• Fee-related earnings (excluding net performance fees): +29% year-over-year, driven by positive organic growth, the positive impact of investment performance, and margin expansion at some of the largest affiliates. ²

They also identified that net performance fee earnings were $49 million, increasing by $29 million from the prior year, driven by Capula, Winton, AQR, and ValueAct. ² This aligns with their narrative of strong performance/demand in key liquid alternative franchises. ²

5) Economic EPS growth was amplified by share repurchases (capital return / share count reduction)

Management explicitly connected economic EPS growth to capital return activity:

• They said economic EPS of $8.23 (up 58% year-over-year) was driven by the factors above and “further benefiting from the impact of share repurchases.” ²
• In Q1, AMG repurchased ~$186 million of shares at an elevated pace and reported share buybacks over the past 12 months of more than $700 million, resulting in a 10% reduction in shares outstanding. ¹
• They reiterated in discussing capital actions that Q1 included repurchases of ~$186 million and noted estimated full-year expectations of ~$500 million, subject to market conditions. ⁷

6) Context: resilience despite volatility (supporting sustained momentum into earnings)

Management acknowledged market volatility but emphasized that AMG maintained record cash flow and record earnings during the quarter, and that the diversified business mix helped it navigate uncertainty. ⁸ They also highlighted that AUM reached $882 billion (highest in AMG’s history), despite macro headwinds, driven by record positive net inflows and AUM from new investments. ⁵

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Bottom line

AMG’s record earnings growth in Q1 2026 appears to be driven by a stacked set of reinforcing factors: (1) strong, record net inflows into alternatives (especially liquid alternatives and tax-aware/absolute-return strategies), ¹⁵³ (2) positive investment performance that boosted fee-related and performance-fee earnings, ² (3) margin expansion at some major affiliates, ² and (4) share repurchases that mechanically improved economic EPS via reduced share count, ¹² all supported by a diversified platform that remained resilient amid market volatility. ¹⁸