Emerging Market Growth to Boost Colgate-Palmolive's Q1 2026 Earnings Insight

Answer: How emerging-market growth is expected to influence Colgate-Palmolive’s Q1 2026 earnings

1) Emerging markets are the main driver of Colgate’s early-year earnings power (via sales growth that converts into EPS)

Colgate states that it “delivered strong top and bottom line growth” at the start of the year, with “organic sales growth accelerated… particularly in Asia Pacific,” and that its “sales growth was led by emerging markets.” ¹² Management further links that emerging-market-led growth to earnings translation: it says it “use[s] the strong net and organic sales growth to deliver gross profit, operating profit, earnings per share and free cash flow growth.” ²

Implication for Q1 2026 earnings: If emerging markets continue to provide volume acceleration and favorable mix, Colgate expects that revenue growth should continue feeding into gross profit and operating profit, supporting EPS in Q1 (and through the quarter’s reported results). ¹³²

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2) Management explicitly expects emerging markets to accelerate, supported by advertising and innovation at local price points

Colgate’s Q1 discussion attributes emerging-market momentum to sustained investment and execution: it says it is “accelerat[ing] the growth” by combining “high levels of advertising investment, particularly in emerging markets” with “good RGM,” and “pricing in the quarter as well.” ³

Management also says it expects emerging markets to “continue to drive the growth for the balance of the year,” and that this is “driven by… accelerating innovation at the lower price points and mid-price points.” ⁴ In addition, management says it believes emerging markets are “accretive in terms of growth prospects” and that it “is investing in them accordingly.” ²

Implication for Q1 2026 earnings: For Q1 itself, the key influence is that emerging-market growth is not framed as purely volume-driven; it’s framed as supported by brand investment and better value propositions, which should help protect conversion to profitability (gross profit and operating profit) rather than only increasing units. ³²

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3) Q1 emerging-market volume acceleration is described as broad-based—this matters because volume weakness was a headwind globally

Management notes that “globally, we’re seeing volumes still be rather sluggish,” but that it is “particularly pleased with the acceleration of volume growth… certainly from the fourth quarter,” and that this volume growth showed up “across almost all divisions and all categories.” ³

Crucially, management calls out that emerging markets specifically accelerated: “the fact that emerging markets have accelerated… Asia Pacific was a big driver of that.” ³

Implication for Q1 2026 earnings: Because Colgate highlights continued global category sluggishness but improving volume in emerging markets, it suggests emerging-market growth should counterbalance broader volume softness and support earnings stability—especially where volume growth typically supports absorption of fixed costs and incremental gross profit generation. ³

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4) Asia Pacific (China/India) is a central emerging-market contributor, with execution improving

Colgate ties Asia Pacific strength to “the 2 largest markets… China and India,” saying it is “really pleased with the acceleration… in the first quarter.” ⁵ It also provides detail on how executions in a key market (referred to as Hawley & Hazel) are improving—through “accelerated innovation” (including “dual tube technology”), “omnichannel execution… including Douyin,” and strong Colgate brand performance (“mid-single-digit growth in a flat to declining market”). ⁵

Implication for Q1 2026 earnings: This points to emerging-market growth being supported by concrete operational drivers (innovation + omnichannel execution), which increases the likelihood that the emerging-market portion of sales growth shows up in earnings rather than remaining purely nominal or promotional. ⁵³²

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5) How strong emerging-market growth is expected to help despite margin pressure and inflation—management positions earnings as resilient

Colgate’s outlook discussion is clear that earnings are constrained by cost inflation and margin pressure: it says there are “significant increases in raw material and packaging costs” built into guidance that “reduce… expectations for gross margin for the year.” ² It further discusses additional raw/material and logistics impacts and oil-related assumptions (e.g., “oil at a price of $110,” and additional “$300 million” raw materials and logistics impact, and that “margins will likely be down”). ⁶⁷

Yet management also emphasizes an offset mechanism: it says it will use RGM productivity and pricing/innovation efforts—“RGM productivity across the entire P&L… allows us to maintain our guidance.” ⁷ Separately, it states that it believes investments in demand generation and RGM give it the ability to drive “profit and EPS growth even in a period of significant cost inflation.” ²

Implication for Q1 2026 earnings: Emerging-market growth is expected to support earnings, but not by eliminating macro margin headwinds; rather, it is expected to fund profitability through sales/EPS translation while Colgate uses pricing, mix, innovation, and productivity actions to manage cost inflation impacts. ³²⁶⁷

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Bottom line

Colgate expects emerging-market growth to influence Q1 2026 earnings primarily by driving organic sales growth (especially Asia Pacific) that management indicates translates into gross profit, operating profit, EPS, and free cash flow. ³² This emerging-market acceleration is described as broad-based volume improvement supported by advertising investment and innovation/value propositions at local price points, helping earnings conversion even while gross margins face pressure from raw-material/logistics inflation that Colgate is actively offsetting via RGM productivity and pricing/innovation. ³⁴²⁶⁷