Analyzing Chipotle's Growth Strategies and Market Recovery Plans for Q1 2026

Ameris Bancorp (ABCB): Quarterly NIM bridge for the expected ~5–10 bps compression (timing + drivers)

Starting point: Q1 NIM level and the directional components

• Q1 NIM expanded to 3.88%. ¹
• The Q1 expansion was +6 bps from funding (offsetting -3 bps from lower asset yields), implying that near-term margin is especially sensitive to the deposit/funding mix. ¹

Management also guided that some slight margin compression is anticipated over the next few quarters, with ~5–10 total bps lower over that period. ¹

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Expected timing (quarter-by-quarter)

Based on management’s discussion:

• Q2: expected to be consistent with Q1 (i.e., no large step-down, but continued mild pressure). ²
• Q3: expected to follow Q2 and remain similar to Q1, with the outcome depending in part on macro rates (specifically the 10-year) and mortgage/refi activity. ²
• Overall compression magnitude: management expects “a few basis points per quarter,” totaling ~5 to 10 bps lower over the next few quarters. ¹

Practical implication for a bridge

Management does not provide a fixed quarterly split that adds exactly to 5–10 bps (e.g., 2/2/3 bps). However, the qualitative guidance (“few bps per quarter” and “next few quarters”) supports constructing a sequential quarterly bridge where each quarter contributes ~1–3 bps of compression.

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Drivers for compression: what management actually cited

1) Deposit cost pressure from funding growth (primary driver of headwind)

• Management explicitly ties future compression to pressure on deposit costs as they fund balance sheet growth. ¹
• They further note deposit growth mix matters: if noninterest-bearing growth slows, the spread can become slightly dilutive.
  • While loans still remain accretive overall when including deposits, management said that if noninterest-bearing growth does not continue, the spread between loans and interest-bearing deposits is slightly dilutive to margin. ³

2) Evidence that deposits/funding conditions are easing the margin benefit

• In Q1, the margin benefit included +6 bps from the funding side, and management also pointed out that noninterest-bearing deposit growth was a key contributor:
  • $323 million of noninterest-bearing growth helped the margin. ⁴
  • Noninterest-bearing deposits returned to 30% of total deposits. ⁵
• This creates a conditional outlook: if this noninterest-bearing tailwind does not persist, compression risk rises. ³

3) Loan yield headwind (secondary driver)

• Q1’s margin expansion was partially offset by -3 bps from lower asset yields. ¹
• Even with the funding benefit, the presence of a yield drag indicates continued sensitivity on the asset side. ¹

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Quarterly NIM bridge (5–10 bps total expected compression): constructed from management’s drivers

Below is a bridge framework consistent with management’s stated mechanics: deposit cost pressure as the dominant headwind, with asset yields providing a smaller offsetting effect, and funding/mix helping only partially as noninterest-bearing growth moderates.

Note on precision: The transcripts provide the total expected range (~5–10 bps) and qualitative quarter timing (“next few quarters,” “few basis points per quarter”) but do not provide a numerical attribution by quarter. Therefore, the bridge below distributes the compression in a way that matches the qualitative guidance and the Q1 component logic.

Bridge assumptions

• Starting Q1 NIM: 3.88%. ¹
• Total compression over “next few quarters”: ~5–10 bps. ¹
• Per-quarter compression: “a few basis points per quarter”. ¹
• Primary driver in each quarter: deposit cost pressure tied to funding growth. ¹
• Secondary contributor: continued lower asset yields / yield pressure consistent with the -3 bps asset yield contribution seen in Q1. ¹
• Mitigant: noninterest-bearing funding mix tailwind, evidenced by Q1’s +6 bps funding impact and management’s stated importance of noninterest-bearing growth. ¹⁴

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Illustrative quarterly bridge (bps)

This bridges the disclosed total range while respecting management’s quarterly cadence (“few bps per quarter”) and driver hierarchy (deposit costs first; yield pressure second; noninterest-bearing mix as the key mitigant). ¹³

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How the drivers should flow through NIM specifically (mechanics)

1. Deposit cost creep from funding mix and growth

   • Management’s stated driver is deposit cost pressure as they fund balance sheet growth, which naturally reduces NIM if loan yields don’t fall at the same time. ¹
   • They also gave deposit repricing metrics: a meaningful portion of retail CDs reprice/mature in Q2 (about 35% maturing in Q2), with pricing around 3.48% vs Q1 production 3.44%—supporting the idea that deposit costs may not fall as expected even if new production is slightly accretive. ⁶

2. Noninterest-bearing growth as the swing factor

   • Q1 benefited from $323m of noninterest-bearing growth, which is consistent with the funding-side +6 bps contribution to margin. ⁴¹
   • If noninterest-bearing growth is not sustained, management indicated margin can be slightly dilutive when looking at interest-bearing deposits vs loan yields. ³

3. Asset yield pressure persists

   • Q1 already showed asset yield headwind (-3 bps from lower asset yields). ¹
   • That means the compressing quarters likely require less offset from assets and more reliance on funding/mix. ¹

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Bottom line

• Expected magnitude: ~5–10 bps NIM compression over the next few quarters. ¹
• Expected timing: Q2 likely modestly down (few bps) and Q3 similar, with the overall total reaching the range depending on conditions (including rates and mortgage/refi behavior). ¹²
• Primary driver: deposit cost pressure tied to funding balance sheet growth. ¹
• Key mitigant / swing factor: continued strength in noninterest-bearing deposits, which supported Q1 margin (+6 bps funding impact). ¹⁴
• Secondary driver: lower asset yields (seen in Q1 as a -3 bps contribution). ¹

This provides the quarterly NIM bridge framework and driver timing consistent with the disclosures in the earnings transcript excerpts.