Carvana Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Key Strategies for Operational Resilience and NIM Growth

Quantifying the expected annual NIM improvement: $400M quarterly rolloff vs. deposit repricing

1) What the company says is driving NIM improvement

Management frames the NIM improvement as primarily coming from balance sheet repricing tied to fixed-rate cash flows rolling off and being repriced at a higher spread, rather than from deposit repricing alone. Specifically, they state they have about $400 million of fixed-rate cash flows that come off every quarter and are repriced at about a 155 basis point spread higher on a weighted-average basis between loans and securities, and they call this “really the driver as we go forward.” ¹

They also note that the NIM guide for the year is “inclusive of any rate actions … on the deposit side, as well as the repricing story.” ²

2) The $400M quarterly rolloff: how much of the NIM improvement it represents

From the excerpts, the company’s “driver” quantification is the spread uplift (155 bps) associated with repricing of the ~$400M per quarter fixed-rate cash flows. ¹³ However, they do not provide a numeric decomposition that converts that $400M rolloff contribution into “x basis points of annual NIM improvement” separately from deposit repricing.

What we can quantify from the excerpts is the mechanics and scale:

• Quarterly rolloff cash flows: ~$400 million per quarter. ¹³
• Repricing spread uplift: ~155 basis points higher on a weighted-average basis between loans and securities. ¹³

But because management does not translate this into an explicit annual NIM basis-point contribution in the excerpts, we cannot compute “the portion of expected annual NIM improvement attributable to the $400M rolloff” in basis-point terms from the provided material. ²¹⁴

3) Deposit repricing: quantified contribution (or lack thereof)

Similarly, while management discusses deposit dynamics—e.g., the March deposit cost number was 1.20% and they expect deposit cost not to go “too much lower” if rates stay the same—the excerpt still does not quantify how many basis points of NIM improvement come specifically from deposit repricing. ²

Additionally:

• They explicitly position the “majority” of the full-year margin underpinning as fixed repricing, with only general discussion of additional benefit from CD pricing/rollovers. ⁵²
• They also give the yearly NIM outlook as a single range (3.22% to 3.23%) without a breakdown of sources. ⁴

4) What’s the best answer possible with the provided disclosures?

Because the excerpts give:

• a clear identification of the $400M/quarter repricing stream as the primary driver, ¹
• and a clear statement that the year’s NIM guide is inclusive of deposit-side rate actions but without a split, ²
• plus a single full-year NIM range without source allocation, ⁴

…the provided excerpts do not contain enough numeric detail to quantify the expected annual NIM improvement into:

• (A) how many basis points come from the $400M quarterly rolloff, versus
• (B) how many basis points come from deposit repricing.

5) Directional conclusion you can support (not a numeric split)

Even though a numeric split isn’t disclosed, the disclosures support a directional weighting:

• Management indicates the balance sheet repricing story tied to the $400M quarterly cash flows is “really the driver.” ¹
• When asked how much benefit is expected/workable on the deposit base, management’s “right answer” points back to the balance sheet repricing story and notes the bank is asset-sensitive (NIM declines with rate cuts, then repricing dynamics drive it higher). ⁵¹
• The deposit-side contribution appears to be discussed as potentially incremental within a broader framework, but the annual NIM guide already includes deposit-side rate actions without separating them. ²⁴

Therefore: the $400M quarterly rolloff is likely the larger portion of the expected annual NIM improvement, but the excerpts do not allow a precise quantification of “how much” in basis points attributable to it versus deposit repricing. ²¹⁴

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Bottom line

• Quantitative basis-point split? Not available in the provided excerpts. ²¹⁴
• What is quantifiable: the scale of the rolloff (~$400M/quarter) and its repricing spread framework (~155 bps spread uplift). ¹³
• What is directionally supported: fixed repricing tied to the ~$400M quarterly rolloff is described as the primary driver of going-forward NIM improvement, while deposit repricing is treated as an included (but not split-out) contributor. ¹²⁵