Key Drivers Supporting Badger Meter’s 2026 Growth in Metering Business

Long-term macro drivers supporting Badger Meter’s durable growth in metering in 2026

Badger Meter frames its metering/AMI business as sitting in a set of durable, long-term secular drivers rather than one-off demand—drivers that management says remain intact even when quarterly revenue is uneven. In 2026 specifically, the company’s long-term support for growth comes from the following macro forces.

1) Recurring replacement and inevitability of meter/reading

Management emphasizes a structural “it only moves right” dynamic in metering: “nothing gets canceled” and meters ultimately must be replaced to address non-revenue water and/or conservation needs. ¹² It also links functionality to communications—about 80% of the market has a radio attached, and if the radio goes dark, the meter can’t be read without manual reads—which creates pressure to upgrade/replace infrastructure on a recurring basis. ²

Implication for 2026: even if order timing is uneven, management argues the demand foundation is recurring because utilities cannot avoid replacement/readability needs. ²

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2) Expansion of AMI installed base (ORION cellular as the “market standard”)

Badger Meter expects 2026 to emphasize expansion of its AMI installed base, which management says in turn makes ORION cellular AMI the market standard and supports meter share gain plus recurring software revenue and broader adoption of beyond-the-meter solutions. ³

Why this is macro-level: management treats AMI expansion as an ongoing modernization wave rather than a short cycle, explicitly positioning 2026 as a “short pause, not a break” in trajectory while the industry moves into the next growth phase. ³⁴

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3) Durable modernization, efficiency, and visibility priorities by utilities

Badger Meter highlights constructive activity across its extended opportunity funnel—including pending RFPs and early utility engagement with consultants—and states that utilities continue to prioritize modernization, efficiency, and visibility across their water networks. ⁵ Management concludes these are long-term secular drivers that “remain intact.” ⁵

Implication for 2026: even with a softer start, management views the pipeline quality and utility priorities as structurally supportive for metering/AMI deployments later in the year and into 2027. ⁵⁴

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4) Multistage AMI procurement and deployment lags (supports ongoing projects turning into revenue)

Badger Meter’s earnings commentary repeatedly attributes revenue unevenness to timing mechanics of the AMI market—awards, then staged deployment—rather than to a collapse in demand. Management notes typical lags between initial award indication and deployment and describes them as common in the industry, contributing to revenue unevenness. ⁶

It also indicates that 2023–2025 strength was supported by large AMI projects beginning deployment and backlog normalization through 2025, and that project pacing/backlog normalization affects quarterly visibility. ⁷¹

Implication for 2026: the company expects 2026 revenue to be weighted toward the back half as awarded AMI projects progress into deployment. ¹⁸ That is a long-term market process driver—projects eventually deploy—rather than a permanent slowdown. ⁴

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5) Continued competitive conversion supported by cellular AMI resilience and software leadership

While this is partly company-specific execution, management frames it as enabled by the resiliency of cellular AMI and its leadership position in software, which has allowed Badger Meter to convert market share. ⁹ Management provides examples of competitive conversions (e.g., winning fixed-network RFPs and converting meters/radios after winning the AMI RFP; converting from competitive AMR drive-by to ORION cellular with BEACON SaaS). ⁹

Macro linkage: competitive conversions matter because they translate modernization budgets into share gains, but management portrays the underlying rationale as technology-led utility modernization rather than cyclical demand. ⁹³

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6) Broad funding availability for water infrastructure projects (multiple budget sources)

Badger Meter’s awarded-project discussion highlights that AMI deployment is funded through a wide range of sources, including capital budgets, rate cases, grants, WIFIA loans, and other financing. ⁶

Implication for 2026: this funding diversity supports continuity of modernization programs even when short-term order visibility varies, reducing the likelihood that the secular trend is easily disrupted. ⁶

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7) Regulation- and problem-driven adoption for adjacent “beyond-the-meter” solutions (supports the metering ecosystem)

Although the question is about metering growth, Badger Meter’s metering durability is also tied to increasing adoption of advanced technologies around the metering system, including software and analytics. In its “market supported” description, management cites adoption across ultrasonic meters, cellular AMI, beyond-the-meter solutions, and recurring software and analytics as part of the durable base. ¹

For sewer monitoring specifically, management cites real utility problems and regulatory funding pressure for adoption of smart monitoring (e.g., UK AMP8 spending allocation and mandates, and UK regulation driving investment). ¹⁰ This supports the broader “smart water management solutions” ecosystem that complements AMI deployments. ¹⁰

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Bottom line for 2026

Badger Meter’s long-term macro support for durable metering/AMI growth in 2026 rests on: recurring replacement and readability needs, expansion of the AMI installed base (with ORION cellular as the standard), utility modernization/efficiency/visibility priorities, and a market process of awards flowing into deployment (even if timing causes quarterly unevenness). ²³⁵¹ Management further supports durability by pointing to broad project funding sources and ongoing technology-driven share conversion, which turns secular modernization spending into Badger Meter revenues and recurring software. ⁶⁹