Amcor CY27 Organic Growth Assumptions Post-Merger With Berry Show Above-Market Outlook

Amcor: Organic growth assumptions for calendar 2027 and how “~1% above market” fits the post-merger plan

1) What Amcor is assuming for organic growth in calendar 2027 (CY27)

A. CY27 is treated as the first “clean year” after the Amcor–Berry combination

Management frames calendar 2027 as the first “clean year” after the merger, after the fiscal 2026 period focused heavily on integration while also enabling growth. ¹

B. Return to organic growth is anchored on portfolio focus and mix shift toward higher-growth categories

The organic growth “return” is supported by management’s assertion that it is clear on where the company wants to play: nutrition, health/beauty/wellness, and specialties, further broken into six focus categories that already exceed 50% of top line and should grow as those categories expand. ¹
Management also indicates expected progress on “noncore” actions (portfolio optimization), while emphasizing that the core portfolio is positioned in attractive end markets supported by innovation and differentiated capabilities. ¹²

C. Market-volume assumptions: “flat to very modestly up” during the transition baseline

For the transition period outlook that bridges into CY27, management states the volume assumption is “flat to very modestly up,” and also characterizes it as a narrow range. ³
This is important because the question is explicitly about the assumptions for CY27 organic growth: Amcor’s framing suggests the growth return is not predicated on a strong market volume surge; instead, it is built around execution (price/cost, mix, and synergies) plus modest underlying volume. ³

D. Organic growth/outperformance relies on “outperform versus market” rather than purely market-like growth

Management explicitly links CY27 confidence to “outperformance versus market,” supported by:

• A more global product range and expanded capabilities from combining Amcor and Berry (including innovation and sustainability) ⁴
• A deliberate shift during integration to focus on service, quality, and customer delight, supported by tools for frontline teams to drive growth ⁴
• Evidence of “green shoots,” with examples such as protein and pet care collectively representing “somewhere between 15% and 20% of the company,” and management expecting more outperformance going forward. ⁵

E. Organic growth is funded/underpinned by steady reinvestment capacity (CapEx ~5% of sales)

While the excerpt does not present a single numeric “organic growth rate” for CY27, it does give an operating-capacity assumption that supports organic initiatives: CapEx is described as roughly 5% of sales, characterized as “steady and consistent” to support growth initiatives, and described as a “harbinger” of organic growth ability. ⁶

2) How the expected growth versus the market (~1% above) fits into the post-merger plan

A. The “~1% or so above market” concept is explicitly framed as coming from the combination delivering growth beyond market

The question in the transcript references that management “at the time… highlighted that the combination should be able to deliver kind of growth about 1% or so above market.” ⁷
In response, management reinforces that the merger benefits include “enabled growth” rather than only cost-out, and attributes expected outperformance to the combined platform and growth enablers. ⁴

B. The plan combines modest volume with synergy capture and operating performance to generate higher-than-market earnings growth

Amcor’s transition and CY27 earnings outlook appears to rely on a multi-part build:

• Transition-period volume assumption is “flat to very modestly up” ³
• Adjusted EPS is guided for the transition period (six months ending Dec 31, 2026), with a bridge that includes synergy capture and net operating performance contributing positively (e.g., positive EPS impacts from synergy capture and net operating performance). ⁸
  This matters for CY27 “above-market” execution because it implies the company does not require strong market growth to achieve its targets; rather, it expects to convert merger-related advantages into earnings growth even when volume is flat/modest. ⁸³

C. CY27 expectations explicitly emphasize synergy “bulk” realization and completion of synergy actions

Management indicates that for the synergy program, “’27 is going to be the year… where we are going to pretty much see the bulk of it,” and that implementation activities will be “pretty much be done by the end of ’27.” ⁹
That positions CY27 as the year where merger benefits (synergies) are most fully realized—i.e., where the “above-market” growth assertion is most likely to show up in results. ⁹

D. Organic volume growth expectation in CY27 is tied to leveraging the Berry acquisition (more diversified portfolio, expanded offerings, broader geographic reach, enhanced capabilities)

Amcor states it “anticipate[s] organic volume growth” by leveraging the Berry acquisition, describing the acquisition as creating a stronger, more diversified portfolio with expanded product offerings, broader geographic reach, and enhanced capabilities in innovation and sustainability. ¹⁰
This is directly consistent with the “~1% above market” framing: organic volume growth is expected, but it is expected to be enabled by the merged capabilities and portfolio improvements, not solely by broad market demand. ⁴¹⁰

E. Management connects CY27 plans to double-digit adjusted EPS growth and 3x leverage by year-end 2027 (the earnings expression of the plan)

Amcor’s CY27 outlook includes:

• Line of sight to “double-digit adjusted EPS growth” in CY27 ¹⁰
• Leverage “approximately 3x by year-end” 2027 ⁸¹¹
• Ongoing “mid-single-digit EBITDA growth” described as core to assumptions (pathway discussion). ⁶¹²
  While these are not “organic growth” rates per se, they illustrate how the post-merger plan expresses “above-market” performance: earnings power improves through the synergy and execution engine, with organic volume/outperformance acting as a contributor. ⁶¹²¹⁰

3) Putting it together: a coherent view of the CY27 organic-growth assumptions

Based on the excerpts, the implicit framework for CY27 organic growth is:

1. Clean-year timing: CY27 benefits from the merger integration “clean year” effect, with the same team now focused less on integration firefighting. ¹
2. Modest market volume: the baseline transition volume assumption is “flat to very modestly up,” implying organic growth is not primarily driven by a major market upcycle. ³
3. Execution-based organic outperformance: management explicitly expects “outperformance versus market,” driven by the combined global product range/capabilities and growth enablers (innovation/sustainability; service/quality/customer delight; tools for frontline teams). ⁴
4. Portfolio/mix focus: growth is expected through concentration in nutrition/health/beauty/wellness/specialties and penetration gains in higher-growth/higher-margin focus categories. ¹¹⁰
5. Synergies peak in CY27: since “the bulk” of synergy is expected in 2027 and activities are “pretty much… done” by year-end, CY27 is structurally positioned to deliver the merger’s “~1% above market” value proposition through both revenue/volume enablement and earnings power. ⁹⁴

In short, the “expected growth versus market (about 1% above)” fits the post-merger plan as the earnings-and-growth expression of merger-enabled organic outperformance, occurring in a year when integration is largely behind them and synergy realization is at its peak, while still assuming market volume is flat to modestly up. ⁷⁴³⁹