Industry-wide Reserve Development and Social Inflation Impact
Selective highlighted ongoing industry-wide reserve increases, with nearly $10.5 billion added in 2024, nearly half for pre-pandemic years.
Selective's reserve actions are driven by recent, immature accident years, especially in longer-tail lines, indicating a focus on recent paid emergence patterns.
Management emphasized that their reserve development reflects the quality of initial loss picks and that they respond quickly to loss emergence, contrasting with industry trends.
The company believes the pressure on casualty reserves is industry-wide, driven by social inflation, particularly affecting bodily injury claims.
Selective's portfolio has a higher exposure to construction and longer-tail lines, which may influence their reserve development and social inflation sensitivity.
Impact of U.S. Healthcare Policy Changes and Medicaid Work Requirements
Ed Aldag highlighted the passage of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' in July, which introduces phased Medicaid funding changes and work requirements over the next decade.
Management emphasized that these policy shifts are expected to increase hospitals' need for innovative capital solutions, positioning MPT's business model as more relevant.
The company anticipates that healthcare providers will explore new financial flexibility options as they adjust to these regulatory changes.
Impact of California Workers' Compensation Rate Increase on Business Cycle Signals
California's 8.7% increase in workers' compensation loss costs, a significant outlier, raises concerns about a potential shift in the market cycle.
NCCI's 6% increase in medical severity for 2024 further signals possible market hardening.
AMERISAFE's ancillary exposure in California means it cannot ignore these developments, which could impact future pricing and risk management strategies.