FHB (2025 - Q3)

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Hawaiian, Inc. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Kevin Haseyama, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead, sir. Kevin Ha

Thank you, Jonathan, and thank you, everyone, for joining us as we review our financial results for the third quarter of 2025. With me today are Bob Harrison, Chairman, President and CEO; Jamie Moses, CFO; and Lee Nakamura, Chief Risk Officer. We have prepared a slide presentation that we will refer to in our remarks today. The presentation is available for downloading and viewing on our website at fhb.com in the Investor Relations section. During today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, so please refer to our Slide 1 for our safe harbor statement. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. The appendix to this presentation contains reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measurements to the most directly comparable GAAP measurements. And now I'll turn the call over to Bob.

Hello, everyone. Thank you, and thanks for joining us today, and I'll start by giving a quick overview of the local economy. The state unemployment rate continued to drift lower and was at 2.7% in August compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Through August, total visitor arrivals were up 0.7% compared to last year as strength in the U.S. Mainland arrivals more than offset weaknesses in Japanese and Canadian arrivals. Year-to-date, visitor spending was $4.6 billion, up 4.5% compared to the same period of last year. The housing market remains stable. The median single-family sales price on Oahu was $1.2 million in September, up 3.8% from last year. The median condo sales price on Oahu for September was $509,000, down 1.7% from the prior year. Before we move on, I wanted to discuss the federal government shutdown, and it's too early to measure the full impact on the Hawaii economy, but with a large civilian federal workforce, we expect that many families will begin to face financial hardship. Through the Hawaii Bankers Association, all the local banks have asked affected families to contact their local bank to discuss available relief measures. Turning to Slide 2. We had another strong quarter as net income increased compared to the second quarter. The improvement relative to the prior quarter was driven by higher net interest and noninterest income, partially offset by a higher effective tax rate. As you might recall, our second quarter results included the impact from a change in California tax law, which resulted in a net benefit of $5.1 million last quarter. The effective tax rate in the third quarter returned to a more normalized 23.2%. Turning to Slide 3. The balance sheet remains solid as we continue to be well capitalized with ample liquidity. We held the investment portfolio relatively flat and loans declined by $223 million. Average deposits were higher during the quarter, and we saw a surge at the end of the quarter due to inflows in public operating accounts, and Jamie will cover this in more detail in a little bit. We also repaid the $250 million FHLB advance that matured in September. And during the quarter, we repurchased about 965,000 shares at a total cost of $24 million. We have $26 million of remaining authorization under the approved 2025 stock repurchase plan. Turning to Slide 4. Total loans declined by about $223 million in the quarter. The decline was primarily in C&I. Dealer flooring balances fell by $146 million and paydown on lines of credit by several Hawaii corporate borrowers added about $130 million to the decline in the C&I balances. We're seeing strong originations so far in the fourth quarter and expect to end the year about flat to year-end 2024. Now I'll turn it over to Jamie.

Thanks, Bob. Turning to Slide 5. Total deposits increased about $500 million in the third quarter. Commercial deposits increased $135 million and were partially offset by a $43 million decline in retail deposits in the quarter. The decline in retail deposits seems to be largely due to seasonality, where we have seen a pattern of declining balances in the third quarter, followed by growth in the fourth quarter. Total public deposits increased by $406 million, and all of that growth was in operating accounts. There was no change in the balance of public time deposits. In the fourth quarter, we expect seasonal increases in both retail and commercial deposits, while seeing outflows in public deposits. The total cost of deposits fell by 1 basis point and the ratio of noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits was a strong 33%. On Slide 6, net interest income was $169.3 million, $5.7 million higher than the prior quarter. The NIM in the second -- third quarter was 3.19%, up 8 basis points compared to the prior quarter. The increase in the margin was primarily driven by higher asset yields as well as some nonrecurring items such as loan fees. The run rate NIM for the month of September was 3.16%, and we continue to expect positive NIM momentum in the fourth quarter, and our current thinking is that the margin will advance a few basis points from the September NIM. This guidance reflects the impact of our fourth quarter loan and deposit outlook and additional 25 basis point rate cuts in both October and December. Turning to Slide 7. Noninterest income was $57.1 million in the quarter. Noninterest income benefited from higher BOLI income due to favorable market movements and swap income. We continue to expect the normalized run rate of noninterest income will be about $54 million per quarter. There were no unusual expense items in the third quarter. And based on our year-to-date expenses, we now expect that full year expenses will come in below our most recent outlook of $506 million. And now I'll turn it over to Lee.

Thank you, Jamie. Moving to Slide 8. The bank continued to maintain its strong credit performance and healthy credit metrics in the third quarter. Credit risk remains low, stable and well within our expectations. We are not observing any broad signs of weakness across either the consumer or commercial books. Classified assets increased $30.1 million due primarily to a single borrower, who is a long-time customer that we know well and are continuing to work closely with. Quarter-to-date net charge-offs were $4.2 million or 12 basis points of total loans and leases. Year-to-date net charge-offs were $11.3 million. Our annualized year-to-date net charge-off rate was 11 basis points or 1 basis point higher than in the second quarter. NPAs and 90-day past due loans were 26 basis points at the end of the third quarter, up 3 basis points from the prior quarter, resulting from a slight increase in nonaccruals. Moving to Slide 9. We show our third quarter allowance for credit losses broken out by disclosure segment. The bank recorded a $4.5 million provision in the third quarter. The asset ACL decreased by $2.6 million to $165.30 million with coverage remaining at 117 basis points of total loans and leases. We believe that we continue to be conservatively reserved and prepared for a wide range of outcomes. And now we would be very happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of David Feaster from Raymond James.

I wanted to talk on just kind of the growth outlook. I mean, obviously, we've had some dealer floor plan with a headwind, some just natural declines in C&I. I was hoping you could first maybe touch on kind of how the pipeline is shaping up, demand that you're seeing and other opportunities that you'd be interested in helping accelerate organic growth, whether it's -- is there any appetite for full purchases or C&Is? Just kind of curious kind of your thoughts on, again, what are you seeing now in the pipeline and demand and organic growth and other opportunities to accelerate that?

David, this is Bob. I'll maybe start off, hand off to Jamie. So yes, the third quarter was a little unusual in that we saw some pretty significant paydowns in dealer floor plan. Part of that was one of our customers sold several franchises. So that impacted that negatively. But overall, we're still very bullish in that business. We're seeing very strong production in the pipeline. There are some of that's already closed for the fourth quarter. Some of that's C&I, a lot of that is CRE. So we think we're going to have a very strong fourth quarter. And as we look to the future, we have considered pool purchases, but maybe I'll ask Jamie to just comment on that.

Yes. Thanks, Bob. I think we're looking at just in totality, as Bob said, I think we're looking at being able to get back to flat at the end of '25, roughly to where we were at the end of '24, which speaks to the strength of the pipeline that we see today. But to the broader question of pools and purchases, I think we always look at things. And to the extent that we feel like we have some level of expertise or knowledge in particular areas, we look maybe to carve out things that we have expertise in. So for example, maybe like a residential pool of Hawaii loans, right, might be something where we would think the long and hard about purchasing or if there are opportunities around properties in Hawaii that we might look at as well. So for the most part, we see where that we want to grow loans, but we're really looking for areas where we have some sort of expertise or niche knowledge around in order to be able to do that.

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just -- I mean, the core deposit growth was tremendous. I was hoping you could maybe touch on a bit. You talked on some continued growth in core deposits. Obviously, there's some seasonality that you alluded to. But could you talk about where you're having success driving core deposit growth? And then just, again, the good and the bad of that is we built liquidity. Like how do you think about deploying some of that liquidity in the coming months?

Yes. Thanks, Dave. So I guess we're going to expect that our deposit total balance is probably going to be like roughly flat at the end of the year to where we are today. And that mix is going to shift a little bit from -- we expect to see some of our public deposits kind of run out here in the fourth quarter, but sort of replaced by retail and commercial deposits. So where we're having success really is our retail teams and our commercial teams are really out there and really talking to our customers and doing a really good job of maintaining, strengthening relationships in the community. And I think we're really trying to focus on that relationship activity. And so we've had a lot of success with that, and that's due to the efforts of our retail and commercial teams primarily out here on the ground.

And to add to Jamie's answer, as far as the liquidity that we have, we have been -- we are no longer letting the investment portfolio run down. So we're holding that flat. So we have kind of restarted some purchases after a number of years of letting it run down. So we're keeping that relatively flat with similar duration and very similar categories of securities that we're looking at to purchase.

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just last 1 for me. I appreciate the margin commentary I mean, look, you're naturally rate sensitive just given the strength of your core deposit base and the floating rate nature of some of your loans. Just kind of curious I mean there's a lot of moving parts in here, right? You got liquidity deployment and all -- there's a lot of moving parts. But I'm just kind of curious, first, how do you think about managing deposit costs as the Fed cuts? And then just given the tailwinds from back book repricing, remixing and some of the liquidity deployment that we're talking about, do you think that we can see the margin continue to expand even with Fed cuts next year?

I think Dave, that depends kind of on the timing and the magnitude of those cuts. I think that would -- that is ultimately by the end of the year, it could be a challenge to see NIM expansion at the end of the year. But for now, I think, for now...

End of the year and then 2026.

That's right. Yes. But for now, what we see is that we have sufficient loan growth and sufficient loan growth just sort of cover this, right? So we're still -- we're looking at -- we're looking at $1 billion of cash flows over the next 12 months. At like -- we'll call that like a 125 basis point spread right now to loans that we're putting back on the books. And we have a 200 to 250 basis point spread on the investment portfolio, right now that we're sort of -- that we're keeping flat. So there are a lot of underlying dynamics. And of course, those spreads will decrease, right, the more the Fed decreases as well. But I think the trajectory for now looks like we can still support increasing expansion of the margin. But of course, there will be a natural spot. I think that's maybe like 1% or so from now. So 4 to 5 rate cuts, something like that. There'll be a natural floor to our ability to drive out further decreases in the deposit book. So good and bad news, right? We got a great deposit base, but it can only go so low, right? There's a floor on that. And so I think there is opportunity to continue to expand the NIM. And again, I think that is going to be largely dependent on our ability to generate loans.

And our next question comes from the line of Charlie Driscoll from KBW.

This is Charlie on for Kelly Motta, if you could remind us of your capital priorities, how you're viewing the buyback? And from an a perspective, the environment is obviously heating up. Just remind us of your strategy on that front?

Yes. Thanks, Charlie. So the capital priorities continue to be the same. We'd love to -- we're doing all the loans that fit our credit box and profile. We want to do all those that we can -- and we have a share buyback authority of $100 million. You see that we've done $74 million so far, and the rest of that is going to depend on, I'll call it, market conditions for sure. And I think the dividend is pretty good yields kind of a place. And also just in terms of the ratio of earnings that we pay out is relatively high. So probably not going to see an increase in the dividend or anything like that as part of that at the moment.

That's helpful. And then I guess, like circling back to the deposit rate conversation. The pricing has been rational and anticipating some cuts, like we've been hearing some changes in expectations from bank. Maybe just put some numbers around how you're thinking about betas on the way down?

Yes. So Charlie, we tend to talk about it as beta on our rate-sensitive portfolio. So we continue to have roughly $4.5 billion rate-sensitive deposit portfolio. We've been very successful in -- with past rate cuts. We're talking maybe 90%, 95% betas on that portfolio relative to a Fed rate cut. We think that we're -- that drives a little bit lower and it gets successively lower for each rate cut that we have, but I think right now, I think about maybe like a 90% beta on the next rate cut, 88% on the next 1 after that, 85%, something like that. So we -- we still think we have a range there where we can drive deposit costs lower of course, when the Fed cuts rates as well. So it's a decreasing ability to do that for sure, but still relatively high at the moment.

Great. And then I guess, just like a little bit of detail with the margin expansion and the 50 bps of additional costs, are you assuming any loan purchases in that or...

No loan purchases in that. That's just what we're looking at in terms of looking at our pipelines and talking with the teams over the past month or so, we just expect to have really strong loan growth here in the fourth quarter.

And our next question comes from the line of Anthony Elian from JPMorgan.

Jamie, just a follow-up on NIM. Just a follow-up on NIM. Slide 5 to 6, you saw a really nice tailwind from loan repricing and looks like every 1 of your loan yields increased from the prior quarter. I'm just wondering how much of a tailwind is left from loan repricing, maybe in 4Q and beyond, just given the outlook for rate cuts on the forward curve?

Yes. So I think there's still a tailwind there. I guess I'll start with that. But then as we look out, we have $1 billion of fixed rate cash flows coming off of the portfolio over the next 12 months. And right now, we think that, that's repricing higher at like a 125 basis point spread at the moment. So there's still a pretty significant tailwind there. Now the 125 basis points, that's an average. And more the Fed cuts, the tighter that spread gets for sure. But there is still an ability to reprice those cash flows higher. On the investment portfolio, where we're seeing $500 million to $600 million of runoff over the next 12 months, we're getting like a 225 to 250 basis point spread on those purchases. So there's still a really significant sort of balance sheet role impact that we're seeing. That should be a tailwind not only in the fourth quarter, but into the first and second quarters as well. Now again, all of this is dependent upon being able to replace those cash flows with loan growth. And we think we can do that. but it will be dependent upon that sort of loan growth trajectory. And to the extent that we don't get the loan growth, we would consider other things we would consider maybe increasing the size of the investment portfolio. It's not our preferred option. But there are things that we would do to manage the balance sheet and to try to manage that NIM to continued expansion or at least sort of trying to keep it flat as we get those third and fourth and fifth anticipated rate cuts.

Okay. And then my follow-up, I think you pointed to $54 million of fee income in 4Q. Just what are the areas or headwinds you expect to decline this quarter? Is it just the 2 items you call out on Slide 7.

Yes. I think that's right, Tony. Yes. It's not really headwinds. It's just we kind of got some good positive surprises here in the third quarter and wouldn't necessarily expect that to continue into the fourth.

Yes. And to add to that, we have been kind of messaging more in the 51% to 52% range. And now just given the strength of the overall fee business, we're moving that up to 54% as kind of our expected run rate.

And our next question comes from the line of Matthew Clark from Piper Sandler.

Just to close out the NIM discussion, do you have the spot rate on deposits at the end of September?

That was 136 basis points end of September.

Okay. And then the negative migration you saw in substandard this quarter. Can you just speak to what drove that increase?

So it's primarily that single loan to our long-time customers. And we're not really worried about loss or anything like that. We work closely with the customer. We just feel it's prudent to continue to update the ratings as we see the financials.

Okay. I may have missed it, but the type of customer and the situation there?

We didn't share that one, Matt. So we'd rather not. It's a small town.

Understood. And then just on the capital question. I don't think you finished up on the M&A piece. But -- and again, I may have missed it, but just any updated comment on M&A discussions you might be having, whether or not things have changed materially since last quarter.

No, unchanged. We're still open to talking to people and we certainly consider the right opportunity, but no change from previous guidance and discussion.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Timur Braziler from Wells Fargo.

Jamie, your comment on total deposits, I want to make sure I heard that right. Is it flat for 4Q or flat for the year?

It's flat third quarter to fourth quarter. So we expect public to run out in the fourth quarter a little bit, while we increased retail and commercial.

And then maybe back to Matt's last question. Just more specifically, Mainland M&A. It sounds like that's been something that's at least on the table more recently? Just is that still the case? And maybe just remind us if that is the case, kind of what you'd be looking at as far as criteria goes?

No change to what I said. Timur, I think the only thing would be it would only be mainland M&A for us because with our HHI market share here, there's nothing we'd be able to do in Hawaii. So but no change. We're certainly open to talking to people and would consider the right opportunity.

Okay. That's a good point. And then, Bob, your starting comment on expecting many families will face potentially some real hard ships here from a prolonged government shutdown. I guess that comment and then looking at the last few UHERO report, which is calling for a mild recession over the course of the next year. I mean is that any different really from kind of the operating trends on the island over these last couple of years? Does that change the way that you guys are thinking about the local economy and, I guess, more pointed just how much of that is already factored in, in the reserving that you have, particularly on the consumer side.

Yes. Maybe I'll start and ask Lee, if she has any additional comments. Really no change. We think that the local economy is resilient. I mean people are not the first time this has happened. It's been a little while since there's been a shutdown that's affected salaries and all that. But we just want to make sure, and that's why we want to do it with all the banks here. I want to make sure we're open and people know they can approach us if there's a need. But we've had just very few inquiries, Lee, maybe if you have any additional comments.

Not really. We haven't really seen any effects in the credit metrics yet. And -- but we're always cautious and we always take it into consideration, when we try to figure out what the right valuation is for the ACL.

And on that, I mean, to speak to consumer credit metrics. Lee did mentioned it earlier, but the 2 that tend to pop up soonest is credit cards and indirect and they're doing quite well. So really no -- nothing observable at this point, Timur.

And our next question comes from the line of Jared Shaw from Barclays.

Everybody. Following up on that, when you look at the impact of federal spending apart from military in Hawaii. Do you -- are you concerned at all that it could be impacted by reshifting of federal priorities? Or is it still pretty heavily defense focused. So while we're dealing with the shutdown now, you still feel that's not going to change the long-term contribution of federal government spending into Hawaii?

Yes, Jared, this is Bob. Totally agree. The long-term trend is defense focused, and it's going to be very strong. I'm heading down to Guam for next week, and the spend there is phenomenal and the projects on deck here are very, very strong. So we're not expecting that our core federal employee workforce is pretty stable. The largest employer being the Pearl Harbor and naval shipyard, which is -- and has been identified as a key resource in the Navy. So really stable to improving, I guess, would be the long-term view.

Okay. And then in conversations with your floor plan dealers, what's their expectation for sort of auto sale volume going into the next year? Are they -- are they thinking that there's going to be a slowdown in purchase activity? And is that incrementally, I guess, better for you with floor plans if inventories stay around longer?

Certainly, we have really great customers with strong credit, so we'd love to see higher balances with those same customers. The discussions haven't been as much around next year. It's really been more topical about tariffs and the impacts of tariffs and different manufacturers are picking up some of the impacts of those additional costs. Others, I think we'll start based on the conversations we're having, we'll start to soon start passing those through to customers. And so there's a fair amount of uncertainty still on the end impact of the tariffs that started at the beginning of this year and what consumers will do with potentially higher price points and how that will affect demand. If it slows down demand, maybe not in the next year, but even into the fourth quarter first and second quarters of 2026. That would definitely help us.

Okay. And then just finally for me. Have you seen any change in sort of pricing behavior from some of the change in ownership of other Hawaii competitors over the last year. It sounded like earlier in the year, there wasn't really any big change, but are you seeing any change in how they're approaching pricing in the markets?

Yes. We haven't seen any change in the market as far as competitive dynamics or pricing.

And our next question comes from the line of Janet Lee from TD Securities.

Hello. Going back to M&A, just quickly, I know you guys touched upon it just a few times on this call. But can you remind us what is your stance -- what is your current stance on that M&A -- potential M&A opportunity if you are looking to -- you're considering opportunities? Like what would be -- what would make sense in the Mainland?

Really nothing to add to our earlier comments, I guess the only thing would be in the Western states. It's not that we're going to go center or East. But it's just -- we're open to talking to people and we're considering the right opportunity and really nothing more to share than that at this time.

Okay. Got it. Fair. I think people are entertaining the idea of resi mortgage coming back if the rate comes down to the 5 handle, is was that something that would be helpful to your market or perhaps not because it's more of a supply issue. How should I think about the positive impact from that point on your resi?

Yes, Janet, it's a good question. I think that the lower the rates go, just the more activity you will see. You are correct that there is some sort of supply constraints around that for sure. But I think it will be helpful for balances. I think that there's -- that there should be some good opportunities there. So yes, I mean, I think, ultimately, for the mortgage business, in particular, if you -- if the rates go a little bit lower, we could see some increased activity in that area, and that should be constructive.

Got it. And apologies if this was already covered, but the paydown on $130 million of paydown on corporate lines, is that -- was that just seasonality that is coming back or just one-off? Or is it really a big quarter for paydowns?

No, it wasn't necessarily seasonally. These were earlier draws for specific things, and now that that's done, they're getting repaid. It's it was odd in that several happened in the same quarter, but there is nothing unusual about the borrowing and repayment. It's just -- just all kind of lend -- the draws weren't in the same quarter, but the paydowns were. So that's why we didn't call it out on the way up, but we're calling it out when it got repaid.

[Operator Instructions] And this does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Kevin Haseyama for any further remarks.

Thank you. We appreciate your interest in First Hawaiian, and please feel free to contact me if you have any additional questions. Thanks again for joining us, and have a good weekend.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.