Pfizer's 2025 Vaccine Strategy & Market Outlook: Earnings Transcript Highlights

Pfizer Inc. - Vaccines Overview

COVID-19 Vaccines and Products

• Comirnaty (COVID-19 vaccine) and Paxlovid (COVID-19 treatment) are expected to maintain stable market shares and pricing in both the US and international markets in 2025.
• Pfizer assumes no material US policy changes affecting the vaccines portfolio in 2025.
• COVID-19 vaccine revenue is expected to be stable and in line with 2024 guidance after adjusting for one-time Paxlovid revenues of $1.2 billion.
• Vaccination rates for Comirnaty in the US are expected to remain materially stable, primarily concentrated in the second half of the year, with timing dependent on strain selection and regulatory approvals.
• Paxlovid utilization is expected to follow COVID-19 infection rates, with revenues fluctuating based on timing, duration, and severity of cases.
• Some Medicaid and Medicare patients are expected to transition out of patient assistance programs in early 2025, allowing Pfizer to recognize additional cash-based revenues.

Non-COVID Vaccines

• Abrysvo is expected to benefit from international market expansion in adult and maternal indications, despite competition and a narrowing US market opportunity due to ACIP recommendations.
• Prevnar (pneumococcal vaccine):
  • Approximately two-thirds of Prevnar revenues come from the pediatric market, which is expected to remain stable with consistent market share through the end of the decade.
  • The adult indication (about one-third of revenues) is expected to face competition and limited catch-up opportunities in the US over-65 population.
  • Growth opportunities exist in the 50-64 age group in the US and international markets through the rollout of PCV20.
  • Overall, Prevnar revenue is expected to moderately decline in 2025.

Market and Policy Considerations

• Pfizer is closely monitoring vaccine sentiment and policy but currently does not anticipate major policy changes impacting vaccine use in 2025.
• Discussions with the incoming US administration aim to ensure health and safety policies support vaccine use.
• Pfizer expects COVID-19 vaccination rates to potentially increase with new waves of infection predicted entering 2025.
• The company is aware of anti-vaccine rhetoric but continues to evaluate its impact on vaccine uptake.

Financial Impact and Outlook

• The IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) impacts higher-priced medicines more significantly but is not expected to materially affect the vaccines portfolio.
• Pfizer expects overall 2025 revenues between $61 billion and $64 billion, with operational revenue growth flat to up 5% compared to 2024 baseline (excluding COVID-related variability).
• Vaccines contribute to the stable revenue base, supporting Pfizer's financial guidance and operational earnings growth.

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This summary highlights Pfizer's vaccine-related business expectations, including COVID-19 vaccines, non-COVID vaccines, market dynamics, and financial outlook for 2025.